Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

11/11/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/11/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 112019

Today is US Veterans Day, banks are closed but US stock markets are open.  Expect volume to be lighter than normal which will either enable price volatility or stocks might do much of nothing once the cash open shakes out.

Protests in Hong Kong flared up again and police opened fire on the demonstrators, an escalation in the four-month protest after the death of a demonstrator last week.  It’s feared China might tighten their grip on the territory to squash the protests.

On the US/China trade war front, Trump made it clear on Friday that he has not agreed to roll back any tariffs on Chinese goods.  Little new information came out over the weekend.

Alibaba’s Singles Day (their response to Amazon’s Prime Day) had over $31B in sales in a weakening Chinese economy.  To put in perspective, that’s greater than the US shopping holidays of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday and the weekend between all combined.

The NY Dept of Financial Services will be investigating Goldman Sachs (GS) for sex discrimination in their algorithms for setting Apple Card credit limits.  Tweets by web developer David Heinemeier Hansson revealed that he received an Apple Card credit limit 20x higher than his wife even though she has a higher credit score.

Earnings include TME, GO, and DFRG.

No economic data scheduled on this Federal holiday.  The Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Europe @ 8:15am ET.

Size bias is a divergent long on light Globex volume.


 Posted by at 6:47 am

11/08/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/08/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 082019

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow confirmed Thursday’s reports that the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods in stages as trade negotiations continued.  Kudlow sad “IF there’s a phase one trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions.”

Meanwhile trade advisor Peter Navarro told Fox Business “There is no agreement at this time to remove any of the existing tariffs as a condition of the phase one deal and the only person who can make that decision is President Donald J. Trump and it’s as simple as that.”

Walt Disney (DIS) is up over 5% premarket on the success of “The Lion King” and “Toy Story 4”.  CEO Bob Iger said they have spent the last several years transforming the company to an extraordinary direct-to-consumer experience and Disney is excited to launch the Disney+ streaming service on November 12.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) the company behind the “Call of Duty” and “World of Warcraft” gaming franchises is down over 1% after beating expectations but lowering fourth quarter guidance.  They will be introducing mobile and free-to-play versions of their franchises with the goal of increasing audience sizes and monetization.

The Gap (GPS) is down over 9% after missing expectations and lowering projections.  Their 15-year CEO Art Peck will be stepping down.

Alibaba is looking to raise more capital with a $15B share offering on the Hong Kong exchange.  The offering would make Alibaba the largest market cap company in the world.

Earnings include DUK, REV, and SSP.

The economic calendar is light with Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations, and Wholesale Inventories @ 10:00 am ET.

Volatility is shrinking and should remain muted to the upside.

No Size bias as Globex Size volume is light.


 Posted by at 6:50 am