11/16/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Nov 162017
 

Tax reform remains in focus as the House is scheduled to vote on their version today.  The tax legislation is expected to pass.  Meanwhile Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) became the first Republican to openly oppose his party’s tax legislation which will make it more difficult for tax legislation to make it through the Senate.   Corporate earnings continue to beat expectations with CSCO the latest yesterday also projecting a rosy outlook in cloud computing growth.  Wal-Mart (WMT) reports this morning.  Also reporting today are VIAB, AMAT, BBY, and GPS.  The economic calendar includes Claims and Philly Fed @ 8:30am EST and Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST.  It was nice to see the pickup in volatility continue yesterday (from a day-trader perspective).  There’s still plenty of elbow room to the 2594.50 all-time high, but expect volatility to shrink as the bulls climb higher.  No Size bias this morning as overnight Size volume was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 7:05 am

11/15/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Nov 152017
 

Concerns over the US Congress ability to pass new tax legislation is growing, weighing on stocks.  API reported yesterday that US oil stockpiles grew 6.5M barrels last week, a surprise coupled with an IEA report showing oil demand growth to decrease in 2018 are suppressing oil prices which are down about 4% since last week.  Today’s economic data includes CPI, Retail Sales and NY State Mfg Survey @ 8:30am EST and Oil Inventories at 10:30am EST which will be given extra attention today considering yesterday’s API report.  Volatility has been loosening up as the ES moves away from its 2594.50 all-time high.  Over the last 2 weeks, the 5-day ATR has increased from about 13 points to 18 points, nearly a 40% increase.  The 2562 area is a critical line in the sand area for the bulls to hold; otherwise we could see some significant downside action.  Overnight Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 7:19 am

09/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 252017
 

Overnight ES action was mixed as Chancellor Angela Merkel polled a narrower margin of victory in the German elections and the far-right Social Democrats gained ground putting the German government into limbo until Christmas.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap national election to dissolve the country’s parliament later this week as he seeks support for a new government to restart the Japan’s failing economy.  There’s no US economic data scheduled for today, however there’s Fed speakers in Dudley @ 8:30am EST and Evans @ 12:40pm EST.  Also, ECB’s Draghi is testifying starting @ 9:00am EST.  Volatility continues to remain constrained to the upside and if Friday’s lows are cleared, then maybe we’ll see some downside expansion today.  The bulls often take advantage of no data Mondays, but volatility to the upside will most like remain constrained.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am

09/20/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202017
 

It’s a Fed day, the day the US stock markets have been waiting for all week.  The Fed is expected to leave rates alone and start the unwinding of their $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  The announcement could send stocks in either direction although the last few Fed announcements have had little impact on the markets as the Fed has been doing a better job of telescoping their policy changes since starting to raise rates.  Trump continues to beat his “America first” drum, this time to the UN General Assembly where he also said the US would destroy North Korea if the US was forced to act.  For today’s economic data, we have Existing Home Sales @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility is getting very tight at 8.5 points ATR over the last 5 days.  Sooner or later we’ll get a range expansion day and a Fed day has a better chance than most.  Size bias is short into the Home Sales report.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am

02/17/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Feb 172017
 

Globex trading turned bearish during the European session on no significant new fundamental information as we head into a 3-day US stock market weekend (Monday is US Presidents Day).  There is no scheduled US economic data for this morning.  The ES is technically overdue for a bearish pullback, but the bears probably won’t get much going unless they can clear the 2331 area.  Volatility should remain similar to yesterday unless the bears get some momentum going.  Volatility may dry up this afternoon as traders start closing shop for the long weekend.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:24 am

10/20/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 202016
 

This morning is about the ECB’s 7:45am EST Minimum Bid Rate announcement and subsequent 8:30am EST ECB President Draghi’s press conference.  Expectations are for the ECB to make no changes; subtle differences from the expectations could move this morning’s markets.  The press conference will most likely overshadow this morning’s 8:30am EST Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims numbers and a slew of corporate earnings reports.  Volatility continues to shrink as traders wait on something that will change their expectations.  No clear Size bias this morning as institutional trading was almost non-existent overnight.

 

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 Posted by at 6:48 am