04/24/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 242018
 

Inflation concerns are in focus as the US 10-year note continues to flirt with 3% and oil prices continue to rise.  Google crushed earnings forecasts after market hours yesterday but the reaction remains muted as analysts pointed out that traffic acquisition costs (like last quarter) remain 2% higher than last year.  The earnings season is in full swing with MMM, CAT, KO, VZ, UTX, TRV, LLY, HOG, BIIB, TXN, and LMT on deck today.  The economic calendar focus is Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility continues to settle in around 30 points per day which means there’s potential for the ES to reach 2700 today.  However, Size bias into the US session open in bearish so if the bulls are to get something going in the US session, they’ll need to first work through the bearishness.

 

 Posted by at 7:32 am

04/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 232018
 

It was a quiet weekend for geo-political news as inflation concerns and corporate earnings are in focus.  The US 10-year note is nearly 3%, the highest rate in over 4 years as the expectations for another Fed rate increase rise.  Earnings today include GOOGL, ALK, HAL, HAS, KMB, TMUS, and WHR.  So far this quarter, 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting have beat expectations.  The economic calendar includes Flash PMIs @ 9:45am EST and Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility is settling in around a 30-point daily range.  Expect volatility to be similar to Friday unless Friday’s 2659.75 LOD is cleared.  Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:00 am

01/25/2018 Martin Luther King Day

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Jan 152018
 

US Stock markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Federal holiday.  DTG will resume posting tomorrow.  Do something, enjoy the day away from the markets!

 Posted by at 6:07 am

12/22/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 222017
 

The ES is up slightly overnight as trading volume continues to dry up into the long Christmas weekend and as many traders take the rest of the year off.  Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing yet another temporary spending bill.  Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as the cyprotocurrency has dropped nearly 40% this week, from a high near $20,000 to a low of $12,560.  The new CBOE and CME bitcoin instruments have finally provided traders a way to short…  The economic calendar focus is Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 am EST.  It’s possible price whippiness could continue today; it’s expected that price movement will start dying down as the day wears on.  Size bias is short into the Durable Goods numbers; however volume was so light overnight that the Size bias should not be given much weight…

 

 Posted by at 6:45 am

09/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 252017
 

Overnight ES action was mixed as Chancellor Angela Merkel polled a narrower margin of victory in the German elections and the far-right Social Democrats gained ground putting the German government into limbo until Christmas.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap national election to dissolve the country’s parliament later this week as he seeks support for a new government to restart the Japan’s failing economy.  There’s no US economic data scheduled for today, however there’s Fed speakers in Dudley @ 8:30am EST and Evans @ 12:40pm EST.  Also, ECB’s Draghi is testifying starting @ 9:00am EST.  Volatility continues to remain constrained to the upside and if Friday’s lows are cleared, then maybe we’ll see some downside expansion today.  The bulls often take advantage of no data Mondays, but volatility to the upside will most like remain constrained.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am

09/20/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 202017
 

It’s a Fed day, the day the US stock markets have been waiting for all week.  The Fed is expected to leave rates alone and start the unwinding of their $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  The announcement could send stocks in either direction although the last few Fed announcements have had little impact on the markets as the Fed has been doing a better job of telescoping their policy changes since starting to raise rates.  Trump continues to beat his “America first” drum, this time to the UN General Assembly where he also said the US would destroy North Korea if the US was forced to act.  For today’s economic data, we have Existing Home Sales @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility is getting very tight at 8.5 points ATR over the last 5 days.  Sooner or later we’ll get a range expansion day and a Fed day has a better chance than most.  Size bias is short into the Home Sales report.

 

 Posted by at 6:33 am