Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/06/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/06/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 062020
 

Markets are looking for any glimmer of hope as the coronavirus pandemic continues to unwind.  US stock futures are up overnight on hopes the pandemic is slowing down.  The number of deaths in many European countries and in New York have slowed in the face of President Trump warning the week will be one of the toughest weeks with a lot of deaths.

Coronavirus cases are approaching 1.3M and over 70K deaths.  The US has over 26% of the world’s cases @ 337K with over 9.6K deaths.  Spain has moved ahead of Italy with over 135K cases and Germany has jumped to 4th position with over 100K cases and a low relative death count of almost 1600.

Britain’s PM Boris Johnson coronavirus condition has worsened, and he has been admitted to a hospital as “a precautionary step”.  His symptoms developed 10 days after testing Covid-19 positive.

A Malayan tiger in New York’s Bronx Zoo is infected with the coronavirus after coming in contact with an asymptomatically infected employee.

Amazon (AMZN) is looking to push their Prime Day out from July until at least August.  This could mean up to a $300M hit to the quarterly earnings.

Nothing of significance on the economic calendar.

Volatility continues to shrink and is now about 58% lower than 3 weeks ago.

Size bias is long on lighter than recent Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 7:20 am

04/03/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/03/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 032020
 

Initial focus is on the 8:30am ET US employment numbers after yesterday’s unemployment claims shows that over 10 million filed in the last 2 weeks.  The economic calendar also includes PMI Services Index @ 9:45am EST and ISM Non-Manufacturing @ 10:00am ET.

Trump’s hint of a resolution between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil prices on Wednesday gave the US stock markets some buoyancy yesterday.  A virtual OPEC meeting is scheduled for Monday.

The US added another 30K+ of coronavirus cases and now tops 245K and 6.1K deaths.  Spain has climbed rapidly and now is second to the US with nearly 118K cases and 11K deaths.  Cases globally exceed 1030K and 54K deaths.  About 220K cases have recovered and 756K cases remain active.

Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to ensure General Electric (GE), Medtronic (MDT), and ResMed (RMD) get all the materials needed to manufacture ventilators.

Tesla (TSLA) is up 13% pre-market after reporting a record 88,400 vehicles delivered first quarter.  They produced 103,000 vehicles and did not change their 2020 goal of 500,000 deliveries despite the coronavirus manufacturing disruptions.

American Airlines (AAL) is cutting 70% to 75% of domestic flights and 90% of international flights for April and May.  They are predicting a 60% reduction in international flights this summer.

Volatility continues to shrink and is moderately high.

No Size bias as Globex volume was both light and mixed.

 

 Posted by at 7:16 am