Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

06/24/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/24/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 242019
 

China’s state run news agent confirmed that President Xi would attend the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, beginning Friday, with a possibility of Trump and Xi resuming trade talks there.    With the geopolitical risk associated with Iran and the upcoming G20 summit, volatility to upside is likely to be muted.    Overnight size bias is short.

Looming US sanctions against Iran seems to buoy oil prices.

Earnings reports: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Companies: Eldorado Resorts (ERI) to merge with Caesars Entertainment (CZR)

Germany’s Daimler (DMLRY) issue Profit Warning

 

 

 

06/21/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/21/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 212019
 

The New York Times reported that Trump ordered an airstrike on Iranian military installations in retaliation for a shot down drone, but then rescinded the order a few hours before the planned strike.  It’s unclear if the strike was canceled or postponed but the element of surprise is gone.

Gold moved above $1400, a 6-year high as the value of global currencies fall and the prospects of another war in the Gulf increases.  The US/China trade war remains in the forefront of market concerns with the G-20 meeting starting next Friday.

The economic calendar focus is the Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET.  There’s also Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am ET.  The Fed’s Brainard speaks @ 12:00pm ET.  Only earnings of note is KMX.

Volatility to the upside should remain stifled while the ES remains under 2965.25.  The longer the ES grinds under and around 2965.25, the bigger the move to the upside which may not happen until after the G-20 meeting.  In the meantime, an increase in volatility is more likely to happen to the downside.  Size bias is short but Globex volume was so light, the bias carries little weight.

 

 Posted by at 6:28 am