Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/15/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/15/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 152024
 

Markets were risk off on Friday, on edge about a Iranian retaliation for an April 1 attack on their Damascus embassy.  On Saturday, Iran launched over 300 explosive drones and ballistic missles at Israel around 2am local time.  Israel shot rockets at the drones, aiming to intercept.  The US shot down over 70 of the Iranian drones.  Most of the drones were shot down, but a few missiles got through causing minor damage to a military base.

The big question mark now is whether the situation will escalate with either an additional attack by Iran or a retaliation from Israel.  Israel has vowed to extract a price for the attack after President Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call Saturday night that Israel should avoid attacking Iran and the US will not support or participate in such a retaliatory attack.

Markets are calmed this morning over speculation that diplomatic efforts will help the Israel/Iran conflict from escalating after the UN Iranian mission said the issue “can be deemed concluded.”

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup ( C ) reported earnings on Friday.  All 3 reported declining interest income in this high interest rate environment.  The banks all gave muted guidance as it looks like the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.  The lowered guidance will likely be replayed by all the big banks reporting this week.

FedWatch shows market consensus is currently two rate cuts this year.

Premarket corporate earnings include The Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Charles Schwab (SCHW), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), and M&T Bank (MTB).

The economic calendar includes Retail Sales and Empire State @ 8:30am ET, and Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked up again from Friday’s selloff.  The 5-day average ES range is now 78 points.

Whale bias is leaning bearish into the 8:30am Retail Sales and Empire State numbers.

 

 Posted by at 5:20 am

04/12/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/12/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 122024
 

Big tech led a rebound after PPI came in lower than expected, pulling the S&P 500 up 0.7% on Thursday.  Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) were up over 4% while Amazon (AMZN) hit its first record high since 2021.  For Apple, it was their best day in 11 months after Bloomberg reported the company is preparing new Mac computers with in-house AI chips.  The other Magnificent Seven components Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) were all up for the day.

After Wednesday’s CPI prints, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank have pushed out their forecasts for the first Fed rate cut from early summer to December.  BoA economist Michael Gaspen wrote that they are forecasting core PCE of 0.25% m/m for March and April which will make cuts in “June or September unlikely absent clear signs of labor market deterioration.”  Deutsche chief economist Matthew Luzzetti wrote that hotter than expected inflation prints, the solid labor market, and easing financial conditions have “clearly diminished the case for commencing rate cuts.”

Gold busted through 2400 overnight to another all-time high.

Mortgage rates are on the rise again, nearly hitting 7.4% for a 30-year mortgage yesterday.  That’s up from 7.11% at the beginning of the week.  The elevated mortgage rates are keeping first-time homeowners out of the market and keeping current homeowners from selling.

Samsung plans to announce a $44 billion investment in semiconductor manufacturing based in Taylor, Texas.  The company is a keystone of the Biden administration to bring back semiconductor manufacturing to the US which had shifted to Asia over the last 2 decades.

Biden’s Chips Act set aside $39 billion in grants plus $75 billion in loans and guarantees which has spurred over $200 billion in private semiconductor investments.  Samsung secured more than $6 billion in US government grants.

Market focus now shifts to corporate earnings.  The Q1 earnings season kicks off today with BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), State Street (STT), Progressive (PGR), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) reporting before the bell.

The economic calendar includes Import Prices @ 8:30am ET and UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations @ 10:00am ET.  The Fed’s Bostic speaks @ 2:30pm ET and Daly speaks @ 3:30pm ET.

Volatility ticked down on Thursday but remains high.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 4:50 am