Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/18/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 182024
 

Tech stocks drove market action on Wednesday.  The tech sector (XLK) was down 1.5%, the worst performing sector of the S&P 500.  Nvidia (NVDA) dropped nearly 4%.  The heightened tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over rate cut timing are weighing on the markets.

Corporate earnings are in focus and next week big Tech Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA) report.  It’s been a year since generative AI has rocketed tech stocks higher which will dampen year-over-year performance going forward.  Results from all the huge AI investments will be scrutinized in the upcoming quarterly reports.

The Dutch supplier of chipmaking equipment ASML plunged 7% in New York trading after their quarterly update.  They missed their order estimates although China sales were strong amid US curbs on semiconductors to China.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world’s largest chipmaker and supplier to Apple and Nvidia, said sales could rise 30% next quarter on demand for AI semiconductors.  “Almost all the AI innovators are working with TSMC to address the insatiable AI-related demand for energy efficient computing power,” said CEO C.C. Wie during the company’s Q1 call.

Wei added, “AI-related data center demand is very, very strong” and the shift from traditional servers to AI servers is favorable to TSMC.  The company is spending billions on building new plants in the US, Japan, and Germany saying its “strategically important” to expand their global footprint.

Premarket corporate earnings for Thursday include Ally Financial (ALLY), Blackstone (BX), DR Horton (DHI), Elevance Health (ELV), Genuine Parts (GPC), Infosys (INFY), KeyCorp (KEY), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Nokia Oyj (NOK), and Snap-on (SNA).  Earnings after the bell include Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix (NFLX), and PPG Industries (PPG).

The economic calendar includes Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed @ 8:30 am ET, and Existing Home Sales and CB Leading Index @ 10:00am ET.  Fed speakers include Bowman @ 9:05am ET, Bowman & Williams @ 9:15am ET, and Bostic @ 11:00am ET.

Volatility took a step down on Wednesday, but the ES 5-day average range is still high at 84 ES points.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30am Claims and Philly Fed numbers.

 

 Posted by at 5:54 am

04/17/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/17/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 172024
 

The Down Jones Industrial Average broke a six-day losing streak, however the S&P 500 closed down 0.2%.  Treasury bond yields remain at multi-month highs and the 2-year touched 5%, its highest yield since November 2023.

Fed Chair Powell said Tuesday that it will take longer than previously expected for inflation to come down towards the bank’s 2% target.  “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us,” Powell said.  This is the first Fed acknowledgement that the sticky 2024 inflation data is not coming down quick enough for the Fed to begin lowering interest rates from their 23-yrst high.

Congressional leaders are pushing a bill that places sanctions on Iranian oil as a statement against Iran’s direct attack on Israel.  Iran produces roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of which 80% is sent to China.  According to ClearView Energy Partners, the sanctions would add about $8.40 to a barrel of oil which translates to about a 20 cent rise in the price of gasoline.

United Health (UNH) closed 5% Tuesday after beating profit estimates despite stating the company would take a $1.6 billion hit from a cyberattack in February.

Bank of America (BAC) reported Q1 profits down 18% from last year while both Morgan Stanley (MS) and BNY Mellon (BK) both beat profit expectations.

United Airlines UA) reported a $124 million Q1 loss which they blame on the 3-week grounding of all Boeing 737 Max 9s after the Alaska Airlines’ panel blew off.  The company also said they would receive fewer new aircraft from Boeing this year than originally forecasted.  Demand for air travel continues to climb.  UA stock was up 5% after hours.

Premarket earnings for Wednesday include Abbott Laboratories (ABT), ASML, Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Prologis (PLD), Travelers Companies (TRV), and US Bancorp (USB).  Earnings after the bell include Crown Castle (CCI), CSX, Discover Financial Services (DFS), Equifax (EFX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), and United Airlines (UAL).

The economic calendar is light with Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET and the Fed Beige Book @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility ticked down on Tuesday but remains high.

No Whale bias as overnight large trader volume was near mixed.

 

 Posted by at 5:26 am