Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/23/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 232024
 

The S&P 500 snapped a 6-day losing streak ahead of Big Tech earnings.

Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the bell.  The company announced EV price cuts in China on Monday.  Investors are nervous over Tesla’s earnings and the company’s recent push for their robotaxi and the decision to have shareholders vote on CEO Elan Musk’s court rejected pay package.  TLSA shares are down 43% year to date.

Shares of Nvidia rebounded 4% on Monday after plunging 10% last Friday.

Q1 earnings season is in full swing with a plethora of companies reporting today.  However, because of the significant rise in share prices in the first 3-months of 2024, many stocks are viewed as overpriced and strong earnings are failing to move the stocks higher.  Meanwhile, companies that disappoint earnings are seeing larger than average declines in share prices.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic thinks the US equities selloff of the last 3 weeks is likely to deepen.  He states mounting macroeconomic risks, rising Treasury yields, a strong dollar, and elevated oil prices.  He thinks earnings this week might temporarily stabilize the market but “it doesn’t mean stocks are out of the woods.”

UnitedHealth Group announced Monday that hackers stole a “substantial proportion” of health and personal data.  Their Change Healthcare unit processes about 50% of US medical claims making this one of the worst hacks in US healthcare.  The hack has caused widespread payment disruptions to doctors and health facilities.

CEO Andrew Witty told CNBC, “A ransom was paid as part of the company’s commitment to do all it could to protect patient data from disclosure.”  The cybercriminals behind the attack are known as AlphV or BlackCat.

Premarket corporate earnings include FCX, GE, GM, HAL, KMB, LKQ, LMT, MSCI, NEE, NVS, PNR, PEP, PM, PHM, DGX, RTX, SPOT, SHW, UPS, and WRB.

Earnings after the bell include AGR, BKR, CNI, CB, CSGP, EWBC, ENPH, EQT, EQR, IEX, MANH, STX, STLD, Tesla (TSLA), TXN, VLTO, and Visa (V).

The economic calendar includes Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET, New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility dropped on Monday but remains moderately high.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 3:52 am

04/22/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/22/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 222024
 

The Magnificent Seven stocks were crushed on Friday, a selloff before earnings this week.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the seven companies are expected to have 38% profit growth in Q1.  The rest of the S&P 500 profits are expected to shrink by 3.9%.

On Friday, AI darlings Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 10% and Super Micro Computer inc. (SMC) plummeted nearly $215 or 23% after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Ince said they were scaling back their chip production expansion.  Nvidia and Amazon (AMZN) are expected to grow earnings 64.3% in Q1.

Headline earnings this week include Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and Chipotle (CMG).  Companies that disappoint earnings are taking bigger hits than usual, down 5.8% the next trading session versus a 3.1% 5-year average.

With the Fed pushing out rate cuts because of stubborn inflation and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, investors have pulled $21.1 billion from stocks over the last 2 weeks.  We have reached a market phase where good economic news is bad for rate cuts.

After Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee “progress on inflation has stalled” comment last week, Friday’s PCE inflation reading takes on more significance this week.

Premarket corporate earnings for Monday include Albertsons Companies (ACI), Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI), Truist Financial (TFC), and Verizon Communications (VZ).  Earnings after the bell include Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Brown & Brown (BRO), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Medpace (MEDP), Nucor (NUE), and Packaging Co. of America (PKG).

The US economic calendar is bare.

Volatility remained steady and high on Friday and likely will remain high for today.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 4:38 am