Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/24/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 242024
 

The first of the Magnificent 7, Tesla (TSLA) kicked off earnings in after hours earnings.  The company said their future vehicle lineup would likely include more affordable models by 2025.  Tesla had previously canceled plans for a sub-$30k model.  The company reported revenue and earning misses, but gross margins beat estimates, 17.4% vs 16.5%.  TSLA stock surged 8%.

Next Magnificent 7 up will be Meta after the bell today.

Economic bellwether Texas Instruments (TI) provided an increased revenue forecast late Tuesday after over a year of shrinking sales.  The report shows industrial equipment makers and automotive customers have worked through their pandemic stockpiles and have resumed ordering TI chips.  TI shares initially jumped 6% in after-hours trading.

The Microsoft (MSFT) backed cloud and data security company Rubrik’s $713M IPO is oversubscribed by 20x.  Rubrik’s IPO is expected to price today and start trading on Thursday under the symbol RBRK.

Both Goldman Sach’s and JP Morgan are warning clients that Fed rate cuts could be pushed out until next year.  JP Morgan’s CEO Jami Dimon warned that the US economy could fall into the stagflation problem of the 1970s where low growth and high inflation co-exist.

For the first time in over 3 years, JP Morgan had a drop in net interest income, a key revenue source.  The bank attributes the reduction of revenue to “deposit margin compression and lower deposit balances.”

Premarket corporate earnings include APH, AT&T (T), AVY, BIIB, BSX, BG, CME, E, ETR, FTV, GD, HLT, Humana (HUM), LII, MAS, EDU, NSC, ODFL, OTIS, OC, RCI, SYF, TE, and TDY.

Earnings after the bell include ALGN, BMRN, CMG, Ford Motor (F), GGG, ICLR, IBM, LRCX, Meta Platforms (META), MOH, MORN, ORLY, RJF, ROL, NOW, TER, TYL, URI, UHS, WCN, and WM.

The economic calendar includes Durable Goods @ 8:30am ET and Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility ticked up on Tuesday and remains moderately high.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30am ET Durable Goods numbers.

 

 Posted by at 4:18 am

04/23/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/23/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 232024
 

The S&P 500 snapped a 6-day losing streak ahead of Big Tech earnings.

Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the bell.  The company announced EV price cuts in China on Monday.  Investors are nervous over Tesla’s earnings and the company’s recent push for their robotaxi and the decision to have shareholders vote on CEO Elan Musk’s court rejected pay package.  TLSA shares are down 43% year to date.

Shares of Nvidia rebounded 4% on Monday after plunging 10% last Friday.

Q1 earnings season is in full swing with a plethora of companies reporting today.  However, because of the significant rise in share prices in the first 3-months of 2024, many stocks are viewed as overpriced and strong earnings are failing to move the stocks higher.  Meanwhile, companies that disappoint earnings are seeing larger than average declines in share prices.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic thinks the US equities selloff of the last 3 weeks is likely to deepen.  He states mounting macroeconomic risks, rising Treasury yields, a strong dollar, and elevated oil prices.  He thinks earnings this week might temporarily stabilize the market but “it doesn’t mean stocks are out of the woods.”

UnitedHealth Group announced Monday that hackers stole a “substantial proportion” of health and personal data.  Their Change Healthcare unit processes about 50% of US medical claims making this one of the worst hacks in US healthcare.  The hack has caused widespread payment disruptions to doctors and health facilities.

CEO Andrew Witty told CNBC, “A ransom was paid as part of the company’s commitment to do all it could to protect patient data from disclosure.”  The cybercriminals behind the attack are known as AlphV or BlackCat.

Premarket corporate earnings include FCX, GE, GM, HAL, KMB, LKQ, LMT, MSCI, NEE, NVS, PNR, PEP, PM, PHM, DGX, RTX, SPOT, SHW, UPS, and WRB.

Earnings after the bell include AGR, BKR, CNI, CB, CSGP, EWBC, ENPH, EQT, EQR, IEX, MANH, STX, STLD, Tesla (TSLA), TXN, VLTO, and Visa (V).

The economic calendar includes Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET, New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility dropped on Monday but remains moderately high.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 3:52 am