Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

03/30/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/30/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 302020
 

Despite a down close on Friday, the S&P 500 gained 10.3% for the week on the back of the $2 trillion economic relief package.  Australia is up 7% overnight fueled by their central bank stimulus.  China’s central bank also lowered rates and injected cash.

Coronavirus cases have surged to over 735K and nearly 35K deaths.  US cases also surged from 86K on Friday to about 143K and approaching 2.5K deaths.  The FDA approved a coronavirus test that takes 5 minutes to get results.  President Trump has backed off his back to work by Easter goal and is extending the social distancing until April 30.

The economic calendar is light with Pending Home Sales @ 10:00am ET.

Earnings include CALM, CAG, WBA, CHWY, and STZ.

Volatility is tightening up but remains high.

Size bias is long into the US session open on light Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 7:29 am

03/27/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/27/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 272020
 

The US House is expected to vote the $2.2 trillion economic relief package.  G20 leaders have also agreed for their countries which collectively total around $5 trillion.

The US is now the epicenter of coronavirus cases, passing Italy and China yesterday.  US cases are near 86K with more than 1.3K deaths, only about 1.9K have recovered and 2.1K are in serious or critical condition.  Global stats are about 541K and approaching 25K deaths, over 125K have recovered.

After speaking with China President Xi Jinping, Trump’s tone towards China shifted.  He praised China’s handling of the coronavirus and said they offered to help the US.  Trump said that China and the US are “working closely together.  Much respect!”

Trump’s plan is to assess and rank every county in the United States and those that have little coronavirus spread risk can get back to business.

The economic calendar is light with Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30am ET and Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked up yesterday and remains high.

No Size bias this morning as Globex volume was both light and mixed.

 

 Posted by at 6:27 am