Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

09/24/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 242018
 

Oil prices traded near 4-year highs after OPEC announced they were making no changes to output quotas.  Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the global oil markets are balanced and he doesn’t influence prices; a response to Trump’s “get prices down now!” tweet.  Meanwhile the US/China trade war continues, China accuses the US of “trade bullyism.”  The US trade wars provides a bearish undertone for stocks that the US bulls have been fighting.  If we ever get a hint of resolution between the US and China, the bulls will be uncorked…  The economic calendar includes the Chicago Fed @ 8:30am EST and Dallas Fed @ 10:30am EST; bot usually non-market moving numbers.  ECB’s Draghi begins testimony with an EU Parliament Committee @ 9:00am EST.  The ES remains pinned under its all-time highs.  Expect upside volatility to be muted.  No Size bias this morning as overnight volume was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 7:22 am

09/21/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/21/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 212018
 

While there is a lull in the US/China trade war talks, the ES closed at record highs yesterday in the familiar grinding higher fashion of the last couple of years.  The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting should keep the bulls from running, but the grind higher could continue.  Micron is down pre-market on lower than expected forecasts partly due to Chinese import tariffs.  Apple’s new iPhone XS, XS Max and Watch Series 4 hit stores today; missing are the usual overnight lines at the store doors.  Another light economic calendar with PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45am EST.  No corporate earnings of note.  Volatility unexpectedly increased yesterday.  Look for volatility to the upside to be muted with more potential for volatility expansion to the downside.  Size bias is short into the US session open on light overnight volume.  The ES Sep 2018 contract stops trading today completing the volume shift to the ES Dec 2018 contract.

 

 Posted by at 7:21 am