Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/23/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Apr 232018
 

It was a quiet weekend for geo-political news as inflation concerns and corporate earnings are in focus.  The US 10-year note is nearly 3%, the highest rate in over 4 years as the expectations for another Fed rate increase rise.  Earnings today include GOOGL, ALK, HAL, HAS, KMB, TMUS, and WHR.  So far this quarter, 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting have beat expectations.  The economic calendar includes Flash PMIs @ 9:45am EST and Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility is settling in around a 30-point daily range.  Expect volatility to be similar to Friday unless Friday’s 2659.75 LOD is cleared.  Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:00 am

04/20/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/20/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 202018
 

Corporate earnings and news is the focus for US stock markets this morning; wild card being random tweets from the US President.  PG and AAPL tumbled yesterday weighing on the DOW.  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM) a major supplier to Apple gave a weak forecast which fueled the AAPL selloff.  Wells Fargo, the US 3rd largest bank, is close to settling a record $1B fine as the penalty for their auto insurance and mortgage lending abuses.  Earnings today include SLB, HON, WM, STI, and SWK.  No US economic data of note scheduled.  The Fed’s Williams has a fireside chat scheduled for 11:15am EST.  As expected, volatility did pickup in yesterday’s downside move.  Expect volatility to be similar today, in either direction.  Size bias is short into the US session open, but on lighter volume than yesterday.

 

 Posted by at 6:36 am