Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

06/22/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/22/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 222018
 

The ES is up overnight, but markets are still cautious as the global trade wars between the Trump administration representing the US and the largest US trade partners continues.  OPEC may announce an increase in oil production later today even though Iran has pleaded not to increase production since they’ll lose leverage fighting economic sanctions against them.  The 35 largest US banks have passed this year’s stress test which help insure the banks can still make loans during a severe global recession.    The economic calendar is light with focus on PMI Composite Flash numbers @ 9:45am EST.  Earnings include BB and KMX.  Volatility continues to increase, but directionally is a tough call; the bulls and bears have equal opportunity at a directional move.  No Size bias as Size seems to have taken the Globex session off.  If anything, the lack of Size interest could indicate a potential reversion to yesterday’s 2752.50 settlement, but Globex price action may have taken the ES too high for a reversion to happen early in the US session.

 

 Posted by at 6:43 am

06/21/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/21/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 212018
 

More global trade wars concerned turned the ES bullish mode back to bearish overnight.  China announced they are ready to respond to Trump’s most recent tariffs with qualitative and quantitative measures of their own.  China’s Commerce Ministry representative said “The US is accustomed to holding big sticks for negotiations, but this approach does not apply to China.”  Meanwhile, the EU has moved in the date their US levies start.  The global trade war is starting to hit corporate earning projections.  Daimler AG stock is down nearly 5% in Frankfurt after the company issued a surprise profit warning based on lower expected sales of their US made Mercedes SUVs because of new Chinese import tariffs on US made vehicles.  Oil prices are down sharply as OPEC members are close to a production increase agreement to pickup loss production from Venezuela and Iran.  The economic calendar focus is Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST.  Earnings today include KR, DRI, and BKS.  Volatility continues to increase over the growing trade wars.  The bulls keep trying to push higher, but the potential for a bigger move is to the downside.  Size bias has shifted from neutral to slightly long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:42 am