Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

12/13/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 132018
 

China is planning a new program that allows better access for foreign companies, a replacement for their “Made in China 2025” program.  China also made their first major purchase of US soybeans yesterday since the US/China trade war began.  Markets are cautiously optimistic that US/China trade war tensions are easing.  The UK pound is stronger after PM Theresa May survived Parliament’s leadership challenge, giving her more chances to come up with a ‘better’ Brexit deal.  The economic calendar is light with Claims and Import/Export prices @ 8:30am EST and Federal Budget @ 2:00pm EST.  The ECB’s president Draghi holds a press conference starting at 8:30am EST.  Earnings include ADBE and COST.  Volatility remains high.  It’s ES contract rollover day which could mean some price whippiness as volume starts shifting from the Dec to Mar contract.  Size bias is leaning bullish into the US session open.

 

ES Worksheet for the DEC 2018 contract (will have the most volume today).

 

ES Worksheet for the MAR 2019 contract (should have enough volume by tomorrow morning)

 Posted by at 7:37 am

12/12/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/12/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 122018
 

US/China trade war tensions seem to be lessening.  China seems willing to reduce tariffs on US car imports and Trump said he’s willing to meet with Xi Jinping to help reach a trade deal.  Trump also said that he’s willing to intervene in the Meng Wanzhou case; the Huawei CFO was granted bail yesterday in Canada but still faces US extradition for charges she help her company sell smartphones into Iran.  However, the bullish trade sentiment is being dampened by UK’s lack of consensus for Brexit and a vote to challenge PM Theresa May’s leadership that will happen today.  The economic calendar focus is CPI @ 8:30am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Earnings include VRA and NDSN.  Volatility remains high and is expected to continue.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am EST CPI numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:49 am