Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

07/15/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 152020
 

Hope for a coronavirus vaccine rose overnight after Moderna (MRNA) published their trial reports in the New England Journal of Medicine.  The report says their testing on 45 people has produced the desired immune response, neutralizing antibodies.   A 30,000 person human trial will begin on July 27 to better determine the vaccines effectiveness against COVID-19.  MRNA shares are up over 16% premarket.

Global coronavirus cases now exceed 13.3M and 578.6K deaths.  The US is over 3.43M and 136.4K deaths.  Florida and Arizona remain escalating hot spots.

The economic calendar is full of tier 2 & 3 data with Empire State and Import/Export Prices @ 8:30am ET, Industrial Production @ 9;45am ET, Oil @ 10:30am ET, and Beige Book @ 2:00pm ET.  The Philly Fed’s Harker speaks @ 12:00pm ET.

Earnings include GS, USB, PNC, BK and AA.

Volatility ticked up once again yesterday and remains elevated.

Size bias leans short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:50 am

07/14/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 142020
 

Geopolitical tensions between the US and China are on the rise again.  The US sold surface to air missiles to Taiwan prompting China to impose sanctions on Lockheed Martin.  On Monday, the Trump administration said that they reject almost all of China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea.

Coronavirus cases continue to grow.  On Monday, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s announcement that the state is once again closing indoor businesses after a record 1,716 COVID-19 new hospitalizations, sent US stocks down during the last two hours of trading.  There is a growing sense of awareness that the COVID-19 situation is going to be drawn out longer than most had hoped.  Los Angeles and San Diego school districts announced they would have online instruction only in the fall.

The Q3 earnings season is beginning.  We have earnings from HPM, C, WFC, and DAL today.

After Delta (DAL) and United Airlines (UA) announced they will be furloughing pilots, American Airlines (AAL) will be doing the same.

The economic calendar focus is the CPI numbers @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility continues to tick up and remains elevated.

No Size bias this morning as Globex volume was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 6:30 am