Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/15/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/15/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 152021
 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the US was entering a period of faster growth and jobs creation.  However, he also warned that a COVID-19 resurgence could once again slow a recovery.

Yields on US Treasuries slipped overnight providing some buoyancy to stocks.

Bank of America (BAC) reported premarket, crushing earnings over last year ($0.86 vs $0.40 per share).  The bank says they plan to buyback $25B of their shares.

United Health (UNH) also reported premarket with $5.31 a share earnings, also crushing analyst estimates of $4.39 per share.  UNH boosted their 2021 profit guidance.

Additional earnings include BLK, PEP, DAL, and RAD.

US cybercurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) closed 31% higher on its first day of volatile trading.  COIN had a reference point of $250 but opened at $381.  The $328.28 closing price gives it a market cap of about $86B.

Dell (DELL) is up over 8% premarket after announcing they would spinoff their 81% ownership of VMWare into a separate company.  DELL share holders will receive a special cash dividend and 0.44 shares of VMWare for each Dell share.

The economic calendar is full with focus on Retail Sales, Philly Fed, and Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Other data includes Empire State Mfg Index @ 8:30am ET.  Industrial Production @ 9:15am ET, Business Inventories and NAHB @ 10:00am ET.  Fed speakers include Bostic @ 11:30am ET and Daly @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility remains steady and contracted.

No Size bias again for Thursday with little Size interest during Globex.

 

 Posted by at 7:13 am

04/14/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/14/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 142021
 

Market focus is on corporate earnings as the big banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) kick off the second quarter season.  BBBY and FRC also report on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the market shook off the bearish reaction to the CDC’s recommendation to pause the use of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) coronavirus vaccine over a rare blood clot reaction by 6 people.

Tuesday’s 30-year bond action found strong buying, raising yields slightly.

The largest US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (COIN) is all set to go public today around $250 per share in a direct listing on Nasdaq.  The price is based on private markets and may be way different than where COIN ends up by the end of the day.

The open-source cryptocurrency Dogecoin surged 73% over the last 24 hours and is up over 2,500% in 2021.  Dogecoin’s market cap is now almost $17B.

The economic calendar includes Import and Export Prices @ 8:30am ET, Oil @ 10:30am ET and the Fed Beige Book @ 2:00pm ET.  Fed speakers include Powell @ 12:00pm et, Williams @ 2:30pm ET, and Clarida @ 3:45pm ET.

Volatility remains muted as the ES continues to grind to new all-time highs.

No Size bias again as Globex volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 6:11 am