Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

11/23/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/23/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 232020
 

It’s a shortened holiday week with US Thanksgiving on Thursday and a shortened trading day on Black Friday.  Volume usually dries up during this week, but this is not a normal year with the coronavirus reducing holiday travel.

US coronavirus cases are now over 12.25M and approaching 257K deaths.  Coronavirus vaccine progress continues to be positive.  AstraZeneca announced their Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective.

Separately, the FDA gave emergency use authorization for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ (REGN) Covid-19 cocktail of antibody treatment of their intravenous infusion drugs casirivimab and imdevimab to people with the coronavirus over the age of 12.  This is the same cocktail given to President Trump when he was hospitalized for Covid-19.

In vaccine distribution news, the chief scientific advisor the US Operation Warp Speed said some Americans will start receiving the vaccine in mid-December.

Earnings include URBN and WMG.

The economic calendar includes Chicago Fed @ 8:30am ET and Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET.

Volatility continues to shrink.

No Size bias as Size trading was almost non-existent during Globex.

 

 Posted by at 7:18 am

11/20/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/20/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 202020
 

A rift between the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve complicates US economic security as coronavirus cases continue to rise, the CDC issued a warning that US citizens should not travel for the Thanksgiving holidays, and Congress is signaling they’ll restart stimulus talks.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent Fed Chair Jerome Powell a letter asking for the Fed to return $455B allocated for the CARES Act back in the Spring.  Mnuchin said the funds have served their purpose and should be made available for Congress to reallocate.  In an email, the Fed voiced their concern that they “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.”

Meanwhile the World Health Organization has recommended that doctors not use Gilead Sciences (GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir for treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients.  A recent British medical journal publication published a report that remdesivir shows no evidence that it improves COVID-19 survival rates.  Gilead is disputing the WHO’s recommendation.

Earnings include retailers FL and HIBB.

The economic calendar is bare.  The Fed’s Kaplan and George speak at an energy conference in Dallas starting @ 9:30am ET.

Volatility is starting to level out as markets wait for a reason to move.

No Size bias as Globex volume was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 6:15 am