Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

12/11/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 112018
 

The ES has turned up this morning after China’s chief trade negotiator spoke with US trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about creating a roadmap towards the framework of the Argentina G-20 discussions.  This discussion came despite the continuing saga of Huwei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s arrest.  She will face a 3rd day of bail hearings as the US continues to try to get her extradited on sanctions violation charges.  The US dollar is stronger against the Euro and Pound after UK PM Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal with the EU.  She has admitted that there is no way it could pass.  The UK Parliament will hold an emergency debate on Brexit today.  The economic focus is the 8:30am EST PPI numbers.  Volatility remains high and there’s enough uncertainty over the US/China trade talks, Brexit, and Fed rates (after last Friday’s poorer than expected employment numbers) to keep volatility high.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am EST PPI numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:06 am

12/10/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Dec 102018
 

According to Adobe Analytics, online holiday sales are over $80.3B for Nov 1 through Dec 6, a rise of nearly 19% over 2017.  On the brick and mortar side of retail, 1 in 8 jobs created in November was in retail.   The Fed’s Bullard said interest rates are “about right.”  The FOMC meets next week for the last policy decisions this year.  A slow down in rate increases may give the bulls reasons to start accumulating again.  US/China trade tensions remain the market focus.  Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou will have a second bail hearing in Canada today as the US seeks extradition based on charges she was involved deceiving banks and helping Skycom sell smartphones into Iran against US sanctions.  The economic calendar is light: JOLTS @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility remains high and no reason to expect any different for today.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 4:29 am