Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

12/05/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/05/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 052019
 

Japan’s Topix index closed up a muted 0.5% after the Japanese government announced a $239B stimulus plan.

Market focus remains on US/China trade negotiations.  Little new information has come to light.

Huawei Technologies has filed a lawsuit against the FCC for their decision to restrict Huawei’s ability to conduct business in the US.  At stake is access to an $8.5B a year subsidy the US government provides US wireless carriers to provide service to rural parts of the US.  The FCC had been granting temporary extensions as US carriers find alternatives to Huawei’s technologies.

Earnings include CLDR, DOCU, DG, EXPR, FIVE, KR, LULU, MIK, SIG, PLCE, TIF, WDAY, and ZM.

No tier one economic data that includes Trade Balance and Claims @ 8:30am ET and Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET.

The Fed’s Vice-Chair Randal Quarles testifies before the Senate Banking Committee staring at 10:00am ET.

Volatility remains elevated after Monday and Tuesday’s selloff.  Expect volatility to contract if the ES climbs back towards it’s all-time high.

Size bias is bullish into the US session open on lighter than recent Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 7:24 am

12/04/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/04/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 042019
 

US stock futures are up this morning after reports that a US/China phase-one trade deal may still be on after all for completion before the 2020 presidential elections as suggested by Trump yesterday.

Salesforce (CRM) is down nearly 1% after beating revenue expectations but issuing good 2020 but weak 2021 revenue guidance.

Alphabet’s CEO Larry Page stepped down after the market close yesterday.  The CEO of Alphabet’s Google unit Sundar Pichai will take over Page’s Alphabet CEO duties.  In a joint written statement Page and Google co-founder Sergey Brin said they think Alphabet will do just fine with one CEO and “Alphabet and Google no longer need two CEOs and a president.”

Earnings include RH, WORK, CPB, HOME, and HRB.

The economic calendar focus is APD @ 8:15am ET and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 10:00am ET.  The calendar also includes Final Services PMI @ 9:45am ET and Oil @ 10:30am ET.

FOMC Vice-Chair Randal Quarles testifies to the House Financial Services Committee starting @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked up once again in yesterday’s US/China trade news selloff.  Expect volatility to remain elevated.

No Size bias as Size Globex volume has moved from bullish to mixed.

 

 

 

 Posted by at 6:55 am