Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

03/03/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/03/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 032021
 

The S&P 500 futures have recovered much of Tuesday’s selloff with technology stocks leading the way.

Rocket Cos. (RKT) is the current darling of Reddit’s WallStreetBets.  The owner of Rocket Mortgage and Quicken Loans shot up 71% on Tuesday after strong earnings.  Rocket stock was 38% sold short and covering helped fuel yesterday’s move.

In the last week of February, Lyft (LYFT) had their best week in ridership in over a year.  Ridership in February increased 4% over January.  The company is raising their Ebitda expectations to a loss to $135M from previous forecasts of a $145M to $150M loss.

Earnings include DLTR, MRVL, SNOW, SPLK, VRM, AEO, FIZZ, and WEN.

The economic calendar include ADP @ 8:15am ET, Final Services PMI @ 9:45am ET, ISM Services PMI @ 10:00am ET, Oil @ 10:30am ET, and Beige Book @ 2:00pm ET.  Fed speakers include Evans @ 1:00pm ET.

Volatility remains elevated but should contract if the bulls push higher.

Size bias is long into the US session open on relatively light Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 6:38 am

03/02/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/02/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 022021
 

The S&P 500 rose 2.38% on Monday after the approval of Johnson & Johnson’s single shot vaccine.  It was the index’s strongest up move since June.  Overnight stock sentiment has shifted to bearish after a Chinese regulator said he was very worried about financial bubbles bursting.

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) is up over 8% premarket after crushing estimates and revenue forecasts.  Revenue of $882.5M is a 369% jump over last year.

Bitcoin remains steady around $49.000.  Goldman Sachs Group (GS) has restarted their cryptocurrency trading desk for bitcoin futures.  Citigroup said bitcoin would become “the currency of choice for international trade.”

Meanwhile NY State Attorney General Letitia James issued warnings that cryptocurrencies have “extreme risk” and that brokers, dealers, salespersons, and investment advisors must fulfill their registration obligations with the state to do business with virtual currencies.

Earnings include TGT, KSS, HPE, JWN, BOX, ANF, FUBO, and URBN.

The economic calendar is bare but Fed speakers include Brainard @ 1:00pm ET and Daly @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility remains elevated.

No Size Bias as Globex volume was too light.

 

 Posted by at 7:07 am