Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

03/01/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/01/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 012021
 

Approval of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) vaccine, stabilizing bond markets, President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus package passed the House and is now in the Senate have brought out the stock market bulls after the S&P 500 fell 2.5% last week.

JNJ’s vaccine was approved by the CDC on Sunday.  The vaccine is the third in the US.  The 72% effective rate is lower than the other two vaccines, but it is a single shot vaccine which could greatly speed up the rate of vaccinations.  JNJ said they would deliver 20 million vaccines to the US by the end of March.

Earnings include SM, NIO, INO, TZOO, and NVAX.

The economic calendar focus are manufacturing PMIs @ 9:45am ET and 10:00am ET.  Fed speakers include Williams @ 9:00am ET and Brainard @ 9:05am ET.  The ECB’s President Lagarde speaks @ 11:10am ET.

Volatility remains elevated and which should continue today.

Size bias is a divergent short into the US session open on relatively light Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 6:28 am

02/26/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 02/26/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Feb 262021
 

Tech heavy Nasdaq tumbled 3.52% on Thursday as Treasury yields rose above 1.5%, the highest levels in over a year.  The markets appear to be more worried about inflation than the Fed.  Tech stocks that benefited from the pandemic are also getting hit as Covid-19 vaccinations increase and the US economy improves.

More troubles for Boeing’s 777 plane after a Rossiya Airlines cargo plane had to make an emergency landing in Moscow.  The 15-year-old plane uses General Electric engines and had an engine control sensor problem.  Boeing (BA) is down over 1% premarket.

Salesforce (CRM) is tumbling premarket after 20% sales growth in the fourth quarter disappointed.  Salesforce also issued forecasts lower than analyst expectations.

DoorDash (DASH) is down over 11% premarket after warning sales will slow as the economy reopens.

AT&T has reached a $1.8B deal with TPG Capital to spinoff 30% of DirectTV, AT&T TV and U-Verse.   The new, separate company will be 70% owned by AT&T.

The economic calendar includes PCE Price Index, Trade Balance, Personal Income & Spending, and Wholesale Inventories @ 8:30am ET, Chicago PMI @ 9:45am ET, and UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility continues to rise and should remain high today.

Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:58 am