Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

01/14/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jan 142021
 

President-elect Joe Biden plans to announce a “shoot for the moon” coronavirus stimulus package that will total $2 trillion.  The plan will include direct payment to Americans, significant state and local funding, and funds to improve vaccine distribution.

The House voted 232 to 197 to impeach President Trump a historical second time.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wrote in a letter that a Senate trial will not begin until after Trump leaves office.  McConnell also wrote that despite press speculation, he has not made up his mind about he will vote and wants to listen to the legal arguments presented.

To avoid fears of a market selloff, US Treasury officials have decided not to include Alibaba (BABA), Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Baidu (BIDU) with a combined market cap of $1.4 trillion in the list of Chinese company that will be banned from trading on US exchanges for supporting Chinese military, intelligence, and security services.  US Investors have until November to divest of the Chinese companies that are on the US ban list.

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) reports that their vaccine requires only one shot and is showing meaningful antibody response in an early phase trial.  The JNJ vaccine is currently undergoing a phase 3 trial.

US coronavirus cases have crossed 23M and 384.7K deaths.

Earnings include DAL, BLK, PRGS, and APHA.

The economic calendar includes Claims and Import/Export prices @ 8:30am ET.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell presents in a webinar starting @ 12:30pm ET.

Volatility continues to shrink as the ES consolidates under its all-time high.

No Size bias once again as Globex Size volume is just too light to be meaningful.

 

 Posted by at 6:19 am

01/13/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 01/13/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jan 132021
 

The US House will likely vote on impeaching President Donald Trump for “incitement of insurrection” that lead to a deadly attack on the Capital and disruption to the electoral vote process by Trump supporters.  The historic second impeachment will have some Republican support where the first impeachment became partisan.  President Trump contends that he did nothing wrong in his rally speech that preceded the Capital attack.

Trump’s YouTube account was suspended by Alphabet’s (GOOGL) with a first strike against it for concerns of over “ongoing potential for violence.”  Trump’s account with 2.78 million followers is restricted from uploading new content for a minimum of 7-days.

US coronavirus cases now top 22.8M with nearly 381K deaths.  Administering coronavirus vaccine shots continues to be a bottleneck issue in getting Americans inoculated.

The economic calendar focus is CPI @ 8:30am ET.  Also on the calendar is Oil @ 10:30am ET, Beige Book and Federal Budget @ 2:00pm ET.  The Fed’s Brainard speaks @ 1:00pm ET and Clarida speaks @ 3:00pm ET.

Volatility continues to shrink as the markets balance new stimulus from Joe Biden against the growing pandemic.

No Size bias again as Size has little interest in trading overnight.

 

 Posted by at 6:21 am