Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

Fourth of July Holiday

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Jul 032020
 

US stock markets are closed today, July 3, 2020 for the Fourth of July Holiday.  DTG will resume posting on Monday, July 6.  Have a great 3-day weekend!

 Posted by at 5:12 am

07/01/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 012020
 

US stocks posted it’s best quarter in over 20 years as stocks bounced back from the COVID-19 induced selloff of late first quarter.  The S&P 500 rose nearly 20%.  Markets remain cautious over increasing COVID-19 infections and warnings.

Google (GOOGL) announced they would push out the reopening of their offices from July 6 to Sep 7 as COVID-19 cases increase in the Western and Southern US.

Beyond Meat (BYND) announced a partnership with Alibaba (BABA) to sell their plant-based products in Alibabba’s Freshippo stores in Shanghai starting July 4.  Beyond Meat already has products in KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut in China.

Earnings include M, GIS, and STZ.

The economic calendar focus is ADP @ 8:15am ET and ISM Mfg. PMI @ 10:00am ET.  The calendar also includes Final Mfg. PMI @ 9:45am ET, Construction Spending @ 10:00am ET, and Oil @ 10:30am ET.  Fed minutes are released @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility remains steady and elevated.

No Size bias as Globex volume is mixed and lighter than recent.

 

 Posted by at 7:50 am

06/30/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/30/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 302020
 

The coronavirus remains the market focus and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that the US economy may stall if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained has futures cautious overnight.

Powell, along with Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin testify before the House Financial Services Committee @ 12:30 pm ET said in a prepared statement “The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus…  A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities.”

Uber Technologies (UBER) has made a $2.6B offer for Postmates.  The acquisition would boost Uber’s Uber Eat food delivery service which has seen a large rise in demand since the coronavirus.

Oil companies are looking to write down the value of their assets.  Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is looking at a $15B to $22B write down and BP had warned of a $17.5B write down.

Micron Technologies is up nearly 6% premarket after solid earnings from rising memory demand from cloud based companies.

Earnings include FDX, CAG, AYI, and SCS.

The economic calendar focus on this last day of the quarter is Chicago PMI @ 9:45am ET and CB Consumer Confidence @ 10:00 am ET.  The calendar also includes S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI @ 9:00am ET.

Fed speakers abound.  In addition to Jerome Powell, Williams speaks @ 11:00am ET, Brainard speaks @ 11:05am ET, and Kashkari speaks @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility remains steady and elevated.

Size bias is bearish into the US session open.

 

 

 

 Posted by at 7:39 am