Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

06/21/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 212018
 

More global trade wars concerned turned the ES bullish mode back to bearish overnight.  China announced they are ready to respond to Trump’s most recent tariffs with qualitative and quantitative measures of their own.  China’s Commerce Ministry representative said “The US is accustomed to holding big sticks for negotiations, but this approach does not apply to China.”  Meanwhile, the EU has moved in the date their US levies start.  The global trade war is starting to hit corporate earning projections.  Daimler AG stock is down nearly 5% in Frankfurt after the company issued a surprise profit warning based on lower expected sales of their US made Mercedes SUVs because of new Chinese import tariffs on US made vehicles.  Oil prices are down sharply as OPEC members are close to a production increase agreement to pickup loss production from Venezuela and Iran.  The economic calendar focus is Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am EST.  Earnings today include KR, DRI, and BKS.  Volatility continues to increase over the growing trade wars.  The bulls keep trying to push higher, but the potential for a bigger move is to the downside.  Size bias has shifted from neutral to slightly long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:42 am

06/20/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/20/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 202018
 

The ES is up overnight despite the growing tensions between the US and China over trade and intellectual property.  Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor told reporters yesterday that China had miscalculated, “if they thought that they could buy us off cheap with a few extra products sold and allow them to continue to steal our intellectual property and crown jewels.”  The Dow Jones Industrial Average became less industrial as General Electric (GE) was dropped from the index.  The DOW index committee sees consumer, finance, healthcare and technology as relatively more important drivers of the US economy rather than industrial.  Walgreens (WBA) will replace GE.  Starbucks announced they would close as many as 150 US stores amid intensified competition and to focus on under-represented markets such as China.  Trying to compete more with Google and Facebook in digital ad sales, AT&T is in talks to acquire AppNexus, an advertising technology company.  The economic calendar focus is Home Sales @ 10:00am EST and Oil @ 10:30am EST.  Fed Chair Powell speaks from a panel discussion starting @ 9:30am EST.  Volatility has picked up, but trade war tensions should make upside movement cautious.  No Size bias as overnight volume was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 6:34 am