Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

09/24/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/24/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 242020
 

Goldman Sachs economists lowered the US growth outlook from 6% to 3% as prospects for additional fiscal stimulus look dim until after what is shaping up to be a contentious November presidential election.  President Trump continues to seed doubt in the reliability of mail in ballots while the Trump reelection campaign has figured out a way to gain electoral votes in Republican controlled swing states.

Back in the Gore vs Bush hanging chad fiasco election, the Supreme Court ruled that states can assign their electoral votes if they deem problems with the state’s voting.  Thus, a state legislature can declare fraud in their voting and assign their electoral votes however they please.  This has never happened before, but the door is open if election results are close.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell along with Tres. Sec. Steven Mnuchin will begin a third day of testimony @ 10:00am ET, this time before the Senate Banking Committee.  On Wednesday, Powell said the US economic recovery would move along faster if support was coming from both Congress and the Fed.  The Fed’s Williams speaks @ 2:00pm ET at a conference on economic inequality.

Following WeChat’s lead, ByteDance has asked a federal judge to stop the enforcement of the Trump administration’s ban that removes TikTok from US app stores on September 27.  ByteDance continues negotiations with Oracle and Walmart and has requested a technology export license from the Chinese government to make the deal happen.

Earnings include COST, CCL, ACN, RAD, DRI, KMX, and JBL.

The economic calendar includes Claims @ 8:30am ET and New Home Sales @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility remains elevated and ticked up on Wednesday’s selloff.

Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:19 am

09/23/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/23/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 232020
 

Despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s repeated warning that the coronavirus pandemic continues to be highly uncertain and the US economy would continue to struggle unless the government provided more aid, US markets snapped a four-day losing streak.  The S&P 500 gained 1.05% on Tuesday but is still down 5.3% for September.

Tesla (TSA) is down over 5% premarket after their ‘Battery Day’ unveil excited but the timeframes were too long for short-term traders.  CEO Elan Musk announced a larger car cell battery called the 4680 that creates 6x more power and 5x more energy and 16% more driving range for 14% less cost.  The cheaper battery will enable Tesla to produce a $25,000, fully autonomous car.  However, it will take to 2022 to reach mass production with the goal of producing 3 terawatt-hours of capacity by 2030.

Nike (NKE) is up premarket after posting better than expected earnings.  Nike’s digital sales increased 82% after announcing in Dec. 2019 they would stop selling on Amazon and focus on their own ecommerce site.  With help from the pandemic, Nike digital sales rose double digits in North America and China regions and triple digits in Europe-Mideast-Africa region.

Earnings include GIS, CTAS, JKS, and FUL.

The economic calendar focus is Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET and Oil @ 10:30 am ET.  Fed Chair Powell testifies before a House panel @ 10:00am ET.  Other Fed speakers include Mester @ 9:00am ET and Quarles @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility remains elevated.

Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:52 am