Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

11/12/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/12/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 122018
 

Alibaba’s $30.8B in sales for Singles Day brought out the ES bulls on during Asian session, but the current realities of a Pending rate hike and lowering of corporate expectations has erased the ES bullish gains during the European session.  The US dollar is at 16-month highs on Fed rate hike expectations.  Oil prices are up as Saudi Arabia announced they would reduce exports half a million barrels a day to offset October oil price declines.  Yesterday was US Veteran’s Day, however US government offices and banks are closed today since the holiday fell on a weekend this year.  This could translate to lighter volume and whippier price movement today.  Also, no economic data released today.  The Fed’s Daly speaks @ 2:30pm EST.  Volatility remains high, although it’s been dampening with the 5-day ATR down from the 70s to 41 ES points.  No Size bias as overnight volume was both lighter than recent and mixed.

 

 Posted by at 7:02 am

11/09/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/09/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 092018
 

The Fed did not raise rates yesterday (as expected), but they also did not waiver from their position of gradually raising interest rates until they reach a sweet spot where incremental changes should not affect global stock markets.  For now, the expected rate hike at the Dec meeting has brought out the bears during the ES European session.  The media giant Walt Disney Co is up premarket after topping earnings estimates and touting their new Disney+ streaming service which will come online next year.  Earnings today include ATHN, TRCO, REV, and SSP.  The economic calendar focus is PPI @ 8:30am EST and Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am EST although the Fed’s current unwavering path should minimize the impact of these reports.  The Fed’s Quarles speaks @ 9:05am EST.  Volatility remains high although shrinking.  Better chance for high volatility to the downside than the upside.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:43 am