Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

11/15/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Nov 152018
 

The British pound is down sharply after the UK Brexit secretary Dominic Raab resigned.  In a tweet, Raab said that he could not support PM Theresa May’s recent Brexit agreement.  The resignation brings into question May’s leadership and possibly a call for new elections.  Meanwhile on the US/China trade war front, US sources acknowledged that China has sent a response to US trade reform demands; hopes have risen that a resolution is closer.  Apple stock continues to slid after third party suppliers revealed reduced orders for iPhone components.  Berkshire Hathaway has up their Apple stake to more than 5% and has also acquired more than $4B of JPMorgan stock.  Cisco stock is up nearly 6% after beating analyst expectations after the bell yesterday.  Uber posed a $1.07B quarterly loss as the position to go public.  Today’s earnings include WMT, NVDA, AMAT, and JWN.  The economic calendar is full with focus on Retail Sales, Philly Fed, and Claims @ 8:30am EST, Business Inventories @ 10:00am EST, and Oil @ 11:00am Est.  Fed speakers include Quarles’ Senate testimony @ 10:00am EST, Chairman Powell @ 11:30am EST, and Bostic @ 1:00pm EST.  Volatility remain high with equal opportunity for the ES to move in either direction.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 7:15 am

11/14/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 11/14/2018 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Nov 142018
 

Japan and Germany economic data shows contractions in their economies.  Both countries cite reduced international trade as the principal reason for the contractions.  Japan is the world’s third largest economy and Germany is the fourth.  After 12 down days, oil prices are on the rise following a comment from OPEC’s General Secretary that they would do “whatever it takes” to address the over-supply issues bringing down oil prices at their December meeting in Vienna.  Earnings include CSCO, M, NTAP, and APRN.  The economic calendar focus is CPI @ 8:30am EST.  The Fed’s Quarles testifies before the House Services Committee starting @ 10:00am.  Volatility remains high and comments from Quarles could certainly send stock markets in one direction or the other.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST CPI numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:55 am