Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

03/15/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/15/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 152019
 

Trump said yesterday that over the next three or four weeks, the US would know where the US/China trade agreement stands.  Meanwhile the Chinese state media said the US and China have made “concrete progress” on trade pact text after Vice Premier Liu He spoke with US representatives Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer via telephone.

Facebook (FB) announced their Chief Product Officer Chris Cox and WhatsApp business development leader Chris Daniels have resigned as Facebook is shifting their focus to a “privacy-focused social platform.”  Broadcom (AVGO) is up nearly 5% after beating expectations.  Adobe (ADBE) is down over 2% and Oracle (ORCL) is down over 3% after lowering second quarter guidance.  Boeing (BA) is also down again after announcing they would pause delivery of their 737 MAX planes.

The SEC sued the German automaker Volkswagen (VLKAY) for perpetrating “a massive fraud” during the diesel emissions scandal.  Volkswagen had announced they were cutting 5K to 7K jobs as they move away from gas powered vehicles to focus on electric.

The economic calendar focus is 10:00am UoM Consumer Sentiment.  Minor reports include Empire State @ 8:30am EST, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, UoM Inflation Expectations and JOLTS @ 10:00am EST.  Volatility remains steady.  The 2825s-2834s area of technical resistance remains as a barrier for the bulls to work through.  No Size bias as Globex trading was light.

 

 Posted by at 6:49 am

03/14/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/14/2019 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 142019
 

Bloomberg reported that a US/China trade summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will not happen in March, more than likely pushed out to April.  China’s industrial output was reported at 5.3%, the slowest pace in 17 years.  However Chinese retail sales came in above expectations.

Trump decided to ground all Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 planes flying over the US as a precautionary measure to protect American citizens.  All airlines and Boeing agreed to the “proactive step out of an abundance of caution.”  The New York Times reports that Facebook (FB) is under a criminal investigation for selling private user data to over 150 companies which include AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, and SNE.  The exact nature of the investigation is not clear and this is separate from the ongoing FTC and SEC investigations.  Tesla is set to introduce their Model Y compact SUV today @ 11:00am EST.

Earnings include ORCL, ADBE, ASNA, ULTA, AVGO, NDLS, PVTL, TEN, JBL, and ZUMZ.  The economic calendar includes Claims and Import and Export prices @ 8:30am EST and New Home Sales @ 10:00am EST.

Volatility has ticked up a notch in part to yesterday’s early RTH runup.  The mid-2820s technical resistance mentioned yesterday held and thus the technical resistance remains through the 2834s.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 7:52 am