Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

05/13/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/13/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 132021
 

A jump in CPI sent US stock markets sharply lower on Wednesday, the largest down day since January.  Fear the Fed may take action to offset inflation underlies the bearish mood.

The ES e-minis have hit its 50-day moving average which should provide some support but also could be the start of another down leg if cleared.

Bitcoin sold off to below $50K after Tesla CEO Elan Musk tweeted that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin payments due to concerns of the increasing use of fossil fuels to run servers that mine bitcoin.  Musk said Tesla will resume taking bitcoin once mining uses more sustainable energy.  Musk also added that Tesla will be looking at using other, more energy friendly cryptocurrencies.

Colonial Pipeline restarted their hacked pumping operations Wednesday evening and oil prices tumbled around 2.5%.  The US East Coast is suffering gasoline shortages, much of it due to hoarding.  Colonial says it will take a few days for pipeline operations to return to normal.

Earnings include DIS, BABA, ABNB, COIN, YETI, GOOS, and DASH.

The economic calendar focus is PPI and Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Fed speakers include Barkin @ 10:00am ET and Waller @ 1:00pm ET.

Volatility ticked up again yesterday and is elevated.  Expect high volatility to continue today.

Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:27 am

05/12/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 05/12/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
May 122021
 

Market focus is on the 8:30am ET CPI numbers.  Indications of increasing inflation could bring out the bears again on Wednesdays as markets fear the Fed could taper monthly purchases and raise rates to combat rising inflation.

The Fed maintains that any inflationary increases are transitionary, and they will maintain their current course.  Fed governor Clarida speaks @ 9:00am ET.

The Colonial Pipeline shutdown due to a ransomware cyberattack is causing shortages on the East Coast.  In Atlanta, upwards of 20% of gas stations are out of gas and gas station lines are backing up onto highways.

Gas prices have risen to the highest price in 7 years.  The weekly oil inventory report is released @ 10:30am ET.

Earnings include BMBL, WEN, LITE, SONO, POSH, DDS, and VRM.

Volatility remains elevated and expect the same for today.

No Size bias; Size is leaning bullish but there’s not enough volume to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 5:57 am