Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

04/08/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/08/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 082021
 

The Fed indicated that they are not close to ending their accommodating monetary policy which supports US stocks and sends the S&P 500 to another all-time record high close.

About 55% of Amazon’s (AMZN) Alabama warehouse turned out for a union vote.  In addition, more than 5800 ballots were received by mail by the National Labor Relations Board.  Vote counting should begin today.  If the employees vote for unionization, this will be the first group of Amazon’s 800,000 employees to unionize.

Apple (APPL) has delayed production of MacBooks and iPads due to the global chip shortage.  Apple iPhone production thus far have not been affected although some supplies are getting tight.

Earnings include LEVI, CAG, STZ, and WDFC.

The economic calendar is light with Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at an IMF seminar starting @ 12:00pm ET.

Volatility continues to contract and likely will remain muted while the bulls continue to grind higher.

No Size bias as Globex volume was too light for a reading of significance.

 

 Posted by at 6:41 am

04/07/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 04/07/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Apr 072021
 

It is a Fed day with a 2:00pm release of March meeting notes.  Analysts will be looking for clues as to when the Fed might hike interest rates and their outlook on the US economy.  Last indications were the Fed would keep interest rates near zero through 2023.

The IMF expects the US economy to expand 6.4% IN 2021 AND 3.5% IN 2022.  They indicated Biden’s $1.9T coronavirus relief package and the acceleration of vaccine rollout as the primary drivers.

Last week Biden singled out Amazon (AMZN) as a corporation that uses tax loopholes to not pay any federal income tax.   Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos responded that Amazon supports Biden’s proposed $2.3B infrastructure plan and that Democrats and Republicans should work together to make it happen.  Bezos said Amazon is supportive of raising corporate taxes to make the infrastructure investment happen.

The largest US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said they expect a first quarter profit of $730M to $800M which is double the entire 2020 earnings.  Coinbase says they have 56 million verified users.  Coinbase will start trading on Nasdaq under the symbol COIN on April 14.

Trading in Toshiba (TOSYY) shares were suspended after the stock surged to a 18% limit on news CVC Capital Partners made an offer to take Toshiba private.  Bloomberg reported that Toshiba has asked for more information about the offer.  If the deal happens, it would be the largest equity-led buyout since 2013.

Earnings include CCL, LW, and DLPN.

The economic calendar includes Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET, Oil @ 10:30am ET, and Consumer Credit @ 3:00pm ET.  Fed speakers include Evans @ 9:00am ET and Barkin @ 12:00pm ET.

Volatility consolidated on Tuesday and could remain muted today until the potential reaction to the 2:00pm ET Fed minutes.

No size bias as Globex volume was too light for a meaningful reading.

 

 Posted by at 6:34 am