Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

10/29/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 10/29/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Oct 292020
 

Wednesday’s coronavirus fear fueled selloff erased October’s gains.

It is a big day for earnings with AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, FB, TWTR, SHOP, SBUX, KHC, CNCSA, YUM, ACTVI, DNKN, RCL, X, K, DD, MRNA, and SPOT reporting today.

Ford (F) is up over 5% premarket after beating expectations on sales of pickup trucks, SUVs, and commercial vehicles while phasing out their unprofitable sedans.

GDP came at a strong 33.1% after diving 31.4% last quarter due to Covid-19 lockdowns.  September Pending Home Sales fell 2.2% vs an expected 3% gain.

Volatility spiked yesterday and remains elevated.

Size bias is long so far this morning.

 

 Posted by at 9:41 am

10/28/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 10/28/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Oct 282020
 

US stock futures sold off overnight once again as prospects of a coronavirus relief package before the elections are gone and global coronavirus cases are racing towards 44 million and deaths at 1.168 million.  US cases are approaching 8.8M and India with over 4 times the population of the US, cases are approaching 8M.  Over the last week, hospitalizations in 22 US states and DC are up 10%.

Microsoft (MSFT) is down over 2% after beating earnings and revenue estimates but lowering their guidance for next quarter.  Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud busines and legacy personal computing business both beat analyst expectations.

Boeing (BA) reported narrower losses than expected.  General Electric (GE) surprised with at third quarter profit and solid fourth quarter guidance.  United Parcel Service (UPS) beat expectations again as they benefit from a stay-at-home coronavirus environment.

Earnings include MA, GD, F, V, AMGN, VDC, EBAY, ETSY, FSLY, GILD, NOW, and PINS.

Jack Dorsey of Twitter (TWTR), Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook (FB) and and Sundar Pichai of Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) face another grilling by Senate Republicans investigating President Trump’s claims that the companies are suppressing conservative, religious, and anti-abortion views.  The CEOs will make their cases in defense of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act which protects internet companies from being liable for content posted by their users.

The economic calendar includes Goods Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories @ 8:30am ET and Oil @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility remains steady and elevated.

Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 8:07 am