Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

06/04/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/04/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 042020
 

Initial market focus is on the 8:30am ET Jobless Claims @ 8:30am ET.  After 2.123 million last week, the number is expected to be below 2 million this week.

Coronavirus cases are shy of 6.6M and over 388K deaths.  US total exceeds 1.9M cases and 109K deaths.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) announced that they were extending their coronavirus social distancing rules from June 30 to September 30.  They are capping first class at 50%, executive cabins at 75% and coach with middle seats empty at 60%.  US security checkpoints cleared 268K passengers Wednesday compared to 2.25M passengers a year ago.

Earnings include AVGO, WORK, DOCU, CIEN, GPS, SJM, and MDB.

In addition to Claims, the economic calendar include Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs @ 8:30am ET and Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET.  THE ECB will release their monetary statement @ 7:45am ET and hold a press conference @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility remains steady with greater potential to increase to the downside than the upside.

Size bias is short into the 8:30am Claims number.

 

 Posted by at 7:24 am

06/03/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/03/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 032020
 

Stocks continue to show buoyancy despite the COVID-19 pandemic, violent US protests over police brutality, and tensions between the White House and Beijing that could thwart the US/China trade agreement.

Coronavirus cases top 6.475M and nearly 383K deaths.  Cases in Brazil and Russia are growing rapidly.  US cases exceed 1.88M and 108K deaths.

Zoom Video (ZM) is up premarket after blowing away estimates with a sales increase of 169%.  The pandemic caused a surge in demand for their distributed, face-to-face collaboration platform.

Google (GOOGL) is being sued for $5B in a class action lawsuit over their Chrome browser’s private Incognito mode.  The suit alleges Google and other websites can collect information from user browsers.  Google says that Incognito mode does not save information to your browser or device but clearly states every time a new Incognito tab is opened that websites may collect information about your browsing activity.

Earnings include CPB, AEO, GOOS, CLDR, ZUO, and CNK.

The economic calendar focus is ADP @ 8:15am ET and ISM Non-Mfg PMI @ 10:00am ET.  Other data includes Final Services PMI @ 9:45am ET, Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET, and Oil @ 10:30am ET.

Volatility continues contracting as the ES moves higher.

Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 8:11 am