Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

09/29/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/29/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 292020
 

Confirmed global coronavirus deaths have surpassed 1 million with the US leading the way with over 205K deaths.  Some experts are predicting the death toll will double from here.  This year, the COVID-19 has taken more lives than influenza, H.I.V., malaria, and cholera.

President Trump says his tax information was obtained illegally.  The New York Times denies the allegation.  Trump says that his debt is small compared to others in his industry and he will release very impressive financial statements that proves he is in good financial shape.  Democrats are demanding more information on Trump’s debt and are vocally concern the debt is a national security risk.

Meanwhile Trump is to debate the Democratic nominee Joe Biden @ 9:00pm ET today.  The debate could draw the largest audience ever.

Microsoft (MSFT) cloud services Teams and Office 365 were down for several hours on Monday.  No information about the outage causes has been released.

Earnings include MU, INFO, PRGS, and MKC.

The economic calendar focus is Consumer Confidence @ 10:00am ET.  The calendar also include Goods Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories @ 8:30am ET and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI @ 9:00am ET.

There is a plethora of Fed speakers today for several virtual conferences: Williams @ 9:45am ET, Harker @ 9:30am ET, Clarida @ 11:40am ET, Quarles and Williams @ 1:00pm ET, and Quarles again @ 3:00pm ET.

Volatility remains elevated although shrinking as the bulls push higher.

Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:36 am

09/28/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/28/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 282020
 

US stocks continued their upward trend from Friday into Globex despite lingering doubt another economic and coronavirus relief package can be completed before the November 3 elections and a New York Times political bombshell article about President Trump’s taxes.

The NYT obtained years of Trump’s personal tax returns which showed he paid only $750 n 2016 and 2017, did not pay any taxes in 10 out of 15 years, and had deductions for a consultant which turns out to be his daughter Ivanka’s company.  The forms also show Trump received a $72.9 million refund in 2011 (which is a target of an IRS audit) and shows a pattern of failed real estate deals.

Most of his income came from the reality tv show “The Apprentice.” In stark contrast to Trump’s boasts that he a successful business mogul.  The tax forms also show Trump received streams of new income into his properties in membership fees and bookings after he won the Republican nomination.  Trump shrugged off the NYT article and called it fake news.

The TikTok app download ban in the US that was to go into effect on Sunday was blocked by a federal judge.  There is a more comprehensive ban scheduled for November 12 which the judge did not address.

The economic calendar is bare however the Fed’s Mester speaks @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility remains elevated.

No Size bias as Globex volume was mixed.  Size sold into Friday’s rally.

 

 Posted by at 5:57 am