Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

07/06/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 062020
 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index surged 5.7%, the largest move in 5 years, after Chinese state media said that fostering a healthy bull market is now important after the coronavirus.

In the US, there’s been a surge in coronavirus cases in Florida, Texas, and California where governors are weighing the possibility of increasing lockdowns.  Meanwhile Goldman Sachs released a report that they expect the US economy to contract 4.6% in 2020, a jump from 4.2% in their last outlook.  US coronavirus cases are approaching 2.9M and nearly 130K deaths.

The Uber deal to purchase Postmates looks official.  Uber is expected to acquire the food delivery service for $2.65B which will expand their Uber Eats service.  Postmates currently controls about 10% of the food delivery market.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is to purchase Dominion Energy (D), a natural gas transmission and storage company for $4B plus about $6B in debt.  It is the largest deal made by Warren Buffett’s firm in over 4 years.

No Earnings of note for today.

The economic calendar is light with Final Services PMI @ 9:45am ET and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked up last week and remains elevated.

No Size bias as Globex volume was mixed.

 

 

 

 Posted by at 6:35 am

Fourth of July Holiday

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Jul 032020
 

US stock markets are closed today, July 3, 2020 for the Fourth of July Holiday.  DTG will resume posting on Monday, July 6.  Have a great 3-day weekend!

 Posted by at 5:12 am

07/02/2020 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jul 022020
 

As we move into a 3-day Fourth of July holiday weekend, Thursday’s initial focus are the 8:30am ET Employment and Unemployment Claims numbers.  Expectations are for improvements in the numbers which have been decimated by coronavirus related layoffs.  The economic calendar also includes Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET and Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET.

US stock futures are up overnight on coronavirus vaccine hopes from Pfizer (PFE) and partner BioNTech (BNTX).  The companies released a study of an experimental coronavirus vaccine which showed a “Strong immune response” in human trials.

Meanwhile, coronavirus cases in the US are increasing, crossing 50K per day for the first time ever

McDonald’s (MCD) paused their reopening of dine-in services for at least 3 more weeks.

Apple (APPL) will close stores in AL, CA, FL, GA, ID, LA, MS, NV, OK, TX, and UT.

Volatility has dropped over the last few days as the bulls worked US stocks higher.

Size bias is long into the 8:30am ET numbers on lighter than recent Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 7:46 am