Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

06/18/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/18/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 182021
 

June 19 is now a US federal holiday known as Juneteenth which commemorates the end of slavery in the US.  Approval for the holiday passed through both houses of Congress almost unanimously and was signed by President Biden on Thursday.  Because the holiday fell on Saturday this year, federal employees have today, Friday June 18 off.

US stock markets however will remain open today since the new holiday legislation passed so quickly.  However, in future years, market stakeholders will consider including Juneteenth on their schedule of US market holidays.

Photoshop maker Adobe (ADBE) is up about 2.5% premarket after beating estimates with $3.83B in revenue.  Adobe also raised their third quarter forecasts.

Friday’s economic calendar is bare and there are no earnings of note.  Sometimes stocks become directional on no data days but with today being a triple witching day and a new holiday, it is difficult to anticipate what stocks might do.

Volatility is shrinking again as stocks find some stability after Wednesday’s Fed reactions.

No Size bias as once again Size is taking little interest in trading during Globex.

 

 Posted by at 6:15 am

06/17/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 06/17/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Jun 172021
 

The Fed brought out the stock market bears on Wednesday by increasing the number of projected rate hikes in 2023 to two and said they have begun discussing the reduction of bond purchases while upwardly adjusting their inflation estimates while unanimously maintaining that current high inflation is transitionary.

In the Fed press conference, Chair Jerome Powell stressed the Fed would announce any policy changes far before they will happen.  Many view the inflation and interest rate changes as the start of the end of the Fed’s pandemic accommodations.

Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella will become the company’s third chairman of the board while continuing his CEO role.  Nadella became CEO in 2014 and has led Microsoft’s transformation into a cloud computing company which is now the second largest market cap company ($1.95T) behind Apple (APPL).

Earnings include ADBE, KR, JBL, and SWBI.

The economic calendar includes Philly Fed and Claims @ 8:30am ET and CBI Leading Index @ 10:00am ET.

The reaction to the Fed on Wednesday sent volatility higher.  The ES now has room to work to the upside and downside.

Size bias is bearish on light Globex volume.

 

 Posted by at 6:15 am