Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

03/13/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/13/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 132025
 

Tesla (TSLA, up 7%) and Nvidia (NVDA, up 6%) surged after a cool CPI report, sending the Nasdaq up 1.2%.  The S&P 500 closed up 0.5% while the Dow Jones ended down 0.2%.

Canada responded to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum with $21 billion in tariffs on US goods.  Trump vows to respond to both Canada’s and the EU’s retaliation tariffs with reciprocal tariffs.

President Trump is close to naming Fed Governor Michell Bowman as the central bank’s new vice chair for supervision.  The position has oversight of US banks.  Trump has made it clear that he wants to lift constraints on lenders and overhaul the regulatory framework put into place after the 2008 financial crisis.

Shares of Intel (INTL) climbed 11% after hours following an announcement that former Cadence Design Systems CEO Lip-Bu Tan would take over as Intel’s CEO.  Separately, a consortium of chip companies that includes TSMC, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) are in talks to take over Intel’s chip manufacturing business.  Tan is no stranger to Intel having served on the board from 2022 but left the board in 2024 over a disagreement on Intel’s turnaround plan.  Intel had received billions of dollars via the CHIPS act to build new manufacturing facilities.

Corporate earnings premarket include Dollar General (DG) and FUTU.  Earnings after the bell include Ulta Beauty (ULTA), DOCU, RBRK, and WPM.

The economic calendar includes PPI and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility remains high and little changed on Wednesday.

Whale bias is bullish into the 8:30am ET PPI numbers on moderate overnight large trader volume.

 

 Posted by at 7:28 am

03/12/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/12/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 122025
 

This morning’s 8:30am ET, February CPI report is expected to show that inflation has moderated.  Expectations for headline annual inflation is 2.9%, still far above the Fed’s 2% target.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned last week that inflation pressures would likely persist and “returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue.”

Some analysts are now warning of stagflation, the economic scenario where growth stalls, inflation persists, and unemployment rises.  Shifting trade policy narratives and recent DOGE efforts are raising the stagflation possibility.  The 10% increase in Chinese import tariffs in effect during February will likely boost the CPI numbers according to Bank of America economists.

President Trump surprised markets on Tuesday by threatening 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum (which he backed off from later after Ontario’s premier said the province would suspend a surcharge on electricity exports to the US.  The 25% steel and aluminum tariffs that go in effect today are welcome news to a group of US steel industry executives who wrote Trump a letter saying, “We stand fully behind your leadership.”

The steel CEOs claim China dumps steel globally, undercutting world markets.  They urged Trump “to resist any requests for exceptions or exclusions and to continue standing strong on behalf of American steel.”  The price of domestic steel has jumped from $700 a ton to almost $1000 a ton since Trump announced his plans, making it easy to understand why US steel producers like tariffs.

Alcoa (AA) CEO William Oplinger on the other hand, says that tariffs would hurt the US aluminum industry.  Alcoa has extensive operations in Canada.  Oplinger says 100,000 US jobs are at stake from aluminum tariffs.

The EU announced tariffs on $28 billion of US goods to counter (equal and appropriate response) Trump’s blanket US tariffs on steel and aluminum.  The European Commission also said they are open to negotiations with the US.  The proposed targets include steel and aluminum, textiles, home appliances, plastics, poultry, beef, eggs, dairy, sugar and vegetables.

Corporate earnings premarket include Dollar Tree (DLTR), LEN, WSM, and YPF.  Earnings after the bell include Adobe (ADBE) and CCI.

The economic calendar focus is the CPI numbers @ 8:30am ET.  Other data includes Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30am ET and the Federal Budget Balance @ 2:00pm ET.

Volatility ticked down on Tuesday but remains high.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 5:42 am