Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

12/05/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/05/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 052024
 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US economy is in “remarkably good shape” and the Fed can “afford to be a little more cautious” in rate cutting. The comments were viewed as bullish and led to new record closes across the board: the S&P 500 up 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 up 1.3%, and the Dow Jones up 0.7%.  FedWatch shows a 78% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in December.

Salesforce (CRM) surged 11% after quarterly earnings beat and upbeat hopes for their AI products.  Nvidia (NVDA) burst out of a post-earnings slumber to gain over 3% while Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) hit new all-time highs intraday.

Bitcoin crashed through $100K to move above $103K overnight.  The cryptocurrency has rallied over 40% since Trump’s Nov 5 presidential win.

US markets had priced in and shrugged off the collapse of the French government.  Far-right leader Marine Le Pen and a left-wing coalition pushed through a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s administration over a budget dispute.  France’s deficit is forecasted to widen to more than 6% of France’s GDP which is double the EU limits.  France President Emmanuel Macron can now appoint a new Prime Minister with no constitutional deadlines for his decision.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said at the NY Times’ Deal Book conference yesterday that he’s “optimistic” about the second Trump presidency and excited about potential regulatory cutbacks.  Bezos added, “If I can help do that, I’m going to help him.”

Wednesday’s ADP payroll report suggested that the labor market is softening and in a glimpse into what might be in Friday’s November jobs report.

Corporate earnings premarket include Dollar General (DG), BMO, BF.B, and CM.  Earnings after the bell include GTLB, IOT, COO, and ULTA.

The economic calendar includes Weekly Unemployment Claims and Trade Balance @ 8:30am ET.

Volatility continues to decline as the S&P 500 pushes new all-time highs.

Whale bias is bearish into the 8:30am ET weekly claims report on significant overnight large trader volume.

 

 Posted by at 4:04 am