Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

09/10/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 102024
 

Monday, after the worst week and worst start to September since 1953 for the S&P 500, the index surged nearly 1.2%.  Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and Energy (XLE) were the strongest sectors and a trio of Magnificent Seven members: Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Amazon (AMZN) lead mega-cap gainers.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak at a conference this morning.

AMD’s chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su the company is just getting started in high-powered AI chips.  AMD’s AI roadmap “are on a one-year cadence of new products.”  Su says AMD could sell $4.5B of their AI chip in 2024, up from $100 million in AI chip revenue in 2023.

Apple (APPL) was little changed Monday despite debuting their iPhone 16 with WiFi 7, AirPod Pro 2, and updates across their Apple Watch lineup.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TMSC), a main manufacturer for Nvidia and Apple, said revenue rose 33% in August, a strong sign that AI and smartphone chip demand remains strong.  The company is currently on track to come in 5% to 6% above guidance and estimates for the quarter.  TMSC is increasing their global manufacturing by considering a third fab in Japan in addition to their ongoing expansion projects in Arizona and Germany.

Data released by the world’s second largest economy China on Monday shows the country’s GDP dropped for the fifth consecutive quarter while incomes are lagging.  This scenario could lead to a deflationary spiral similar to Japan’s since the 1990s where Chinese consumers cut back on spending while waiting for prices to drop further.

This would reduce corporate revenues, leading to additional salary cuts, layoffs, and business closures.  The process is already happening in some Chinese sectors like EV manufacturing and renewables where starting salaries have dropped about 10%.  A separate study by Zhaopin Ltd shows the average Chinese salaries in 38 major cities are nearly unchanged in Q2 compared to 5% in years before the pandemic.

No corporate earnings of interest today.

The economic calendar is bare.  Fed speakers include Barr @ 10:00am ET and Bowman @ 12:15pm ET.

Volatility remains high.  With market focus shifting to tomorrow’s CPI print, volatility will likely drop today.

No whale bias as large trader volume is relatively light and waffling between leaning bullish and leaning bearish.

 

 Posted by at 4:21 am

09/09/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/09/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 092024
 

The S&P 500 slid 4% last week, its worst week since the 2003 regional banking scare.  June and July prints were revised down.  The net interpretation is that the job market is not stumbling or improving much, which reduces the likelihood of the Fed making a 50-bps September rate cut.  The CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 50-bps rate cut dropped from 43% before the jobs report to 30% after.

With layoffs increasing, the jobs market contracting and the possibility of a recession, Americans should be nervous.  However, the opposite is happening.  The University of Michigan sentiment index and the Conference Board’s confidence index are both ticking upward.  Fed surveys show manufacturing firms are more upbeat about future conditions, services firms are raising revenue projections, and capital spending remains healthy.

So why are US consumers feeling better?  Because inflation is coming down after the first serious bout of price hikes in 40 years.  Two generations of Americans have never seen anything like it and the rest had forgotten how painful it could be.  The Fed is about to begin rate cuts which will make mortgages, automobile and other consumer loans cheaper.  Plus, gasoline is down $0.50 from a year ago and projected by many to drift under $3,00/gallon by end-of-year.

A final reading of inflation before the Fed’s policy meeting next week in the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is released on Wednesday.  Expectations are for headline CPI to be 2.6%, which is down from July’s 2.9%.  Month-over-month prices are expected to rise 0.2%.

In corporate news, Apple (APPL) hosts their annual iPhone event today.  Details about their Apple Intelligence AI platform is expected.

It will be a quiet earnings week, headlined by Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Kroger (KR).  For today, corporate earnings after the bell include Oracle (ORCL).

The economic calendar includes Wholesale Inventories @ 10:00am ET and Consumer Credit @ 3:00pm ET.

Volatility took another step higher from Friday’s August jobs report reaction and likely will continue to be high today.

Whale bias is long into the US session open on lighter than last week overnight large trader volume.

 

 

 Posted by at 4:30 am