Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

12/03/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/03/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 032021
 

The Omicron coronavirus variant remains the key driver for the markets’ roller-coaster week.

Market focus is the 8:30am ET employment numbers.  It’s too early for Omicron to affect the jobs numbers, but they could reenforce the Fed’s current desire to speed up tapering.  President Biden will speak @ 10:15am about the numbers.

The US government averted another shutdown after both the House and Senate passed a stopgap bill to keep funding going through mid-February.  A small group of Republican senators had threatened to shut down the government over the Biden administration’s vaccine mandates.  The compromise was a separate vote for an amendment to prohibit federal funds for COVID-19 vaccine mandates.  The amendment failed.  Now there’s the matter of the debt ceiling to address which Treasury Secretary Yellen says will be breached December 15.

After losing half their market value and a crackdown by the Chinese government, Didi Global’s (DIDI) board has decided to delist the company from the NYSE, starting the process immediately.  The company will move the listing to the Hong Kong exchange.  Uber Technologies (UBER) holds 11.9% of the company.

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elan Musk has now sold more than $10 billion of Tesla stock.  Musk has 23 million vested stock options set to expire in August 2022.  He plans to use his stock sales to execute some of the options and cover the taxes on the transactions.  TSLA is up over 48% in 2021.

No corporate earnings of note.

In addition to the 8:30am ET employment numbers, the economic calendar includes Markit PMIs @ 9:45am ET, ISM Services Index and Factory Orders @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility is high which should continue through today’s session.

No Size bias as Globex volume was mixed.

 

 

 Posted by at 6:40 am

12/02/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 12/02/2021 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Dec 022021
 

A fully vaccinated traveler from South Africa became the first identified US Omicron case and sent stocks into a tailspin on Wednesday.  Overnight, futures are showing some high volatility buoyancy with a 25% bounce.  The VIX is at a 6-month high.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remained hawkish in his second day of congressional testimony.  He wants to complete tapering of asset purchases in the first half of 2022.

President Biden will visit the National Institutes of Health for a speech on how his administration will respond to the Omicron variant.

Apple (APPL) is down over 2% premarket after supplier reports said that Apple is warning that holiday iPhone sales is slumping.

Square (SQ), the payment processing company founded by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is changing its name to Block.  The company plans to keep the ticker SQ.  Square’s cryptocurrency division, Square Crypto, will be changing its name to Spiral.

Premarket earnings include Dollar General (DG) and Kroger (KR).  Post-market earnings include Ulta Beauty (ULTA).

The economic calendar focus is Jobless Claims @ 8:30am ET.  Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen speaks @ 9:00am ET.  Fed speakers include Bostic @ 8:30am ET, Quarles @ 11:00am et, and Bostic, Barkin, and Daly @ 11:30am ET.

Volatility is high and should remain elevated today.

No Size bias as Globex volume is decent by Size trading is mixed.

 

 Posted by at 7:35 am