Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

03/17/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/17/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 172025
 

Note: Today is rollover day.  Today’s worksheet reflects prices for the ES June contract which is now the front-month contract.

It’s a Fed week with an announcement and press conference on Wednesday afternoon.  Investors will be looking for clues about possible Fed rate cuts in 2025.  Inflation remains far above the Fed’s 2% target and the Trump administration tariff and other policies could raise prices further.  The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged this week and continue the party line of patience.  The CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing 2 rate cuts through the end of 2025.

Last week, the S&P 500 lost 2.3%, the Nasdaq fell 2.4%, and the Dow Jones tumbled 3%.  The S&P 500 entered an official 10% correction before rebounding on Friday.  The Magnificent Seven, which make up approximately 30% of the S&P 500 market cap, are down significantly from their 52-week highs.  Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all around 20% down.  Tesla (TSLA) is down nearly 50% from last year’s high.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC that he is not worried about the recent stock sell-off, saying “Corrections are healthy.”  His comments have dented hopes that Trump might adjust his tariff policies to support markets.

This morning’s Retail Sales numbers @ 8:30am ET highlights the weeks economic data.  January’s retail sales report was the worst in over a year and consumers have likely continued belt tightening through February in the current, uncertain economic environment of tariff potentially fueling price increases, federal government job and contractor spending cuts, and strict immigration policies.

Earnings this week include Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), and Micron (MU).  No S&P 500 corporate earnings of note for today.

The economic calendar focus is the 8:30am ET numbers: Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index.  Other data include Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility ticked down on Friday but remains high.  The 5-day average ES daily range is 136.50 points.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 6:41 am

03/14/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 03/14/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Mar 142025
 

The S&P 500 closed down 1.4% on Thursday, officially a correction off its record February high.  The Nasdaq which entered a correction last week dropped another 2% yesterday.  The Dow Jones slid 1.3%.  The Carson Group says that of the 48 S&P 500 corrections since World War II, only 12 (or 25%) have turned into a bear market (a correction of over 20%).  Carson’s chief strategist Ryan Detrick does not foresee a bear market from the current correction.

Gold is hitting fresh new highs, finally reaching the $3,000/oz level.

Uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policy and his escalating trade war remains the markets’ top focus.  Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU wines and vowed he won’t bend to the widening trade fight.

It appears another last-minute bill will keep the federal government from shutting down this weekend after senate Democrats decided not block bill from passing.

Separately, the US debt ceiling will be hit this summer.  The House has put an increase to the debt ceiling as part of their tax proposal, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to handle the debt ceiling separately, a move to put the Democrats on record for supporting a debt ceiling increase.  Trump however wants the debt ceiling and tax package paired to bypass the Democrat minority.

Republican senators are trying to address Trump’s top legislative priority, a giant package of tax cuts.  The House passed a budget outline last month that included entitlement cuts while boosting border security and military spending.  The Senate has yet to act on the House proposal.  A frustrated 91-year-old Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said about the tax cut/debt ceiling process after a White House meeting, “It was all talk talk talk… Just like the last 10 weeks.”

Dollar General (DG) beat Wall Street estimates, posting higher than expected earnings, revenue, and same-store sales growth.  The company attributes the solid quarter to economic pressure felt by low-income customers.  Roughly 60% of Dollar General sales come from households with incomes less than $35,000.

Corporate earnings premarket include Rockwell Automation (ROK).

The economic calendar includes preliminary UoM Consumer Confidence and UoM Inflation Expectations @ 10:00am ET.

Volatility remains high.  The ES 5-day average daily range remains flat at 139.75 points.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the US session open on lighter than recent overnight large trader volume.

 

 Posted by at 4:25 am