Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

02/23/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 02/23/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Feb 232024
 

Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings sent the S&P 500 skyward to record highs and up 2.2%.  The Nasdaq 100 rose over 3% to fall just short of its record high.  Nvidia also made record highs after reporting a 265% rise in revenues.  Their stock vaulted 16% which added $277 billion to the company’s market cap, topping Meta’s record for the largest single day increase of any company ever.  The FOMO trade for AI is back on as AI companies across the board had a strong up day Thursday.

AT&T suffered a nationwide cell outage Thursday morning which left millions of customers feeling like they were in an apocalypse, unable to get anything done.  The problems spanned New York, Houston, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, and Dallas.

Social media platform Reddit made their IPO filing public Thursday in anticipation of a March US stock market debut.  Reddit showed their losses narrowed to $90.8 million on 21% revenue growth, lagging the success of contemporaries like Facebook and X (Twitter).

The company said they have 73.1 million active daily and 267.5 million weekly active users in over 100K communities and 1 billion posts.  The company struck a deal with Alphabet’s Google to make content available for training Google’s AI models, a contract worth about $60 million per year.

Corporate earnings before the open include AER, CCEP, H, LAMR, RBA, and WBD.  After the bell earnings include AEE, AMH, CTRA, and PBA.

The US economic calendar and Fed speaker schedule are bare.

Volatility took a leap higher from Thursday’s huge runup and should remain elevated but could take a breather today.

No Whale bias as large trader volume overnight was mixed.

 

 Posted by at 4:01 am

02/22/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 02/22/2024 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Feb 222024
 

Nvidia (NVDA) once again blew out top and bottom-line earnings despite a significant drop in China.  The earnings spur a global stock rally.  The company posted an adjusted EPS of $5.16 on revenue of $22.1 billion for the quarter, clobbering expectations of a $4.60 EPS on $20.4 billion in revenue.  Same time last year, Nvidia posted an EPS of $0.88 on $6.1 billion.

The quarter is nearly the entire year of 2022 when Nvidia posted $27 billion in revenue.  The company also guided higher for their Q1, anticipating revenue of $24 billion.

CEO Jensen Huang said demand for accelerated computing and generative AI is “surging worldwide across companies, industries, and nations… Vertical industries – led by auto, financial services and healthcare – are now at a multibillion-dollar level.”

The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials cautioned against cutting rates too quickly.  They want to wait on convincing evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target as most “noted the risks of moving too quickly.”  Since the meeting, both CPI and PPI came in above forecasts, a sign that short-term inflation has increased.

Big banks need mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to make a comeback this year and its starting to happen.  According to DeaLogic, US M&A is up 130% to $288 billion this quarter while global M&A is up 56% to $453 billion.

The 3 largest deals are Capital One (COF) acquiring Discover Financial Services (DFS) for $35 billion, Truist Financial (TFC) selling its $15.5 billion insurance operation, and WalMart (WMT) acquiring TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion.  M&A activity means hundreds of millions in fees for big banks.  Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup ( C ) all are involved in one of the 3 largest M&As.

After 5 quarters of decline, the world’s largest PC maker (25.6% of the global PC market) Lenovo posted stronger than expected earnings.  The PC market is showing signs of recovery after a nearly 2-year decline.  Lenovo saw growth in almost every market except China where sales dropped 10%, reflecting a slowdown of the world’s second largest economy.

Corporate earnings before the open include BLDR, LNG, D, ETR, GFI, GRAB, IRM, KDP, LKQ, LYG, MRNA, NEM, NICE, PCG, PXD, POOL, PWR, TECK, TFX, and TEF.  Earnings after the bell include AEE, AMH, BMRN, SQ, BKNG, CPRT, CTRA, EIX, EOG, FND, PODD, INTU, LYV, MELI, MORN, NU, PBA, RKT, VALE, and VICI.

The economic calendar includes Claims @ 8:30am ET, Flash PMIs @ 9:45am ET, Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am ET, and Oil @ 11:00am ET.  Fed Governor Philip Jefferson speaks @ 10:00am ET at a conference in DC.

Volatility took a dip on Wednesday but remains elevated.

Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30am Unemployment Claims number.

 

 Posted by at 4:50 am