Apr 292010

Very light volume today but as you can see our calls were spot on. The 95 handle on top of the daily R1 held as support, and as we said, 1200/1201 provided a ton of rejection and served as the interim resistance for the morning. In fact, even though we probed up it still is and we came right back to it. Today shows why you have to be flexible with the levels. We try to mark the lowest volume nodes for consistency, but as we always say, you never know if the market is going to respect it to the tick so you have to watch order flow carefully and just know when you are near the level and just let the order flow take over from there. Our 95.25 level was actually held up a little short by the pivot at 95.75 above it. That served as the rejection point instead and we got filled at 96.25 trading into the 97.25 target for a point. I also scalped the OH a few times (tick scalps always shown in purple) while we were waiting to see what happened with 1200/1201. When we finally tested I was able to scalp it twice while NJ looked for a bigger trade. He got a nice fill short at 1201 with the intent of trading back into 99. As it stalled he re-targeted 1200 and then when we saw lots of cash market pressure building to the long side he ended up bailing just in time with 2 ticks of profit just before it ripped up to 4.50.  As usual we passed on the breakout trade – in this case 3.50 long. They just never seem to set up right very often with the risk & probability right. Hopefully those who did get sucked into the momentum and took it had sense enough to see the hard failure at the top and got out with a tick or two or at least even. It went from printing 2K down to 110 right at 4.50 which was a mystery. Why? Because in low volume the auctions are less than pure and very reactionary. If volume doesn’t pick up we would suggest staying out of the market the rest of the day. ll in all, a good day for us though we didn’t find any nice clean 2 handle trades.

 Posted by at 11:20 am

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