May 032010

A mixed bag this morning, though edged to the positive a bit. Overnight volume has been mixed after Friday’s sell off with fairly even distributions and no price lines in the sand so to speak. That said, retail is a bit more optimistic than institutions who are still sidelining a bit and waiting for the opening swing. Income is looking positive and if ISM and Construction are looking good we may rotate up a bit though we expect volatility to easy a bit today. The levels though are VERY tricky today as at all key spots there are several potential rejection areas all stuck together so expert reading of order flow will be paramount. In fact many may want to sit on their hands unless price moves to the extremes of those areas to be on the safe side. As an example, the overnight high at 89.75 looks to be broken pre-market but even if it is there is a wide range of rejection just above it starting at 90.75 and extending a point or so above that. So if you were looking to fade there price may probe higher and stop you out even though you were right. This is why we look to only scalp the lower end of that and wait for the high side for a good short fade. On the other side which is the OL at 83.75, there is a similar structure with another rejection area right under that at 82.75 and still another at 81.75. Again, we will look to just scalp the vol until and if we get a pure confirmed rejection at the lower end. Beyond the bookends of the OH/OL, we expect strong rejection at 93.75 for a fade and another at 98 which we feel is interim resistance. On the short side there is a similar multi-rejection cluster at 78/77/76ish that we feel is interim support, but be careful fading until the final probe down as it is impossible to tell which is the “real” level. If you like breakouts there may be a nice break short from 82ish into 80 or as far as 78.50. Or to the long side there is a nice break trade from 94.75ish long into 97.00 or 98.00 if we get there. Just watch out for the multi-rejection clusters today.

 Posted by at 9:05 am

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