May 102010

No doubt this will be a pivotal day for the broad markets. If we hold roughly the 42 handle we should see a strong week. Better yet if the 51/52 handle holds that is even more strong. That handle was just tested pre-market on heavy volume so I took it and that may end up being the one trade of the day for us. There just aren’t many important areas for high probability trades today in our view. You might also note that every rejection area is also a previously strong acceptance area. In our view most of the move has to be in at this point as there is just a ton of acceptance acting as resistance from the 50s all the way through the 60s which is why we think the high side will hold. If I had to guess the most important level I would put the wall at 64 which we will most likely fade if we get there. Of course 69/70 is a good spot too. The OH is a little concerning for me as a fade so I have it marked as a scalp for now in my mind. The reason is it is just the top of a major acceptance area and too close to all that solid volume up to 65. So watch out fading the OH as you may get run over. If we do get down to 50 or so I may consider selling there into support at 47 and maybe beyond, though I would surely get out ahead of 42 of course. The overnight volume is very heavy and there is strong institutional participation to the long side, although it is coming off a bit while I write this. The Euro has also come off A LOT which is certainly a giant red flag that we may be a bit overbought already. We also have a strong bid in the 10s now which helps close that case as well. The best course of action off the open will be to watch the cash internals and sectors to see if consensus develops. Watching the VIX to see if implied vol comes off would be a good idea as well. That just may be the tell tale leader today to call the fall or the range. I do think those are the two choices today as after the overnight move I doubt much more rally is in the cards for today.

 Posted by at 9:01 am

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