May 202010

Greece is the word. Protest in Greece has thrown uncertainty on the markets this morning. The bad jobless claims report just adds to the downward movement. The key price levels were difficult to nail down. There so much volume, the levels keep shifting around.  Institutional volume is very heavy relative to what it usually is overnight and heavy to the short side as size goes up. Yesterday too – nearly 2x usual though yesterday they were net buys. Not that cut and dried. My instinct says they are setting a trap. The positioned yesterday and then they fake down and then they buy a ton more down here. I wouldn’t touch anything under the OL if it did break and would wait to fade HVN at 73.50 or LVN at 69-70. I wouldn’t sell the OL as it could stop anywhere. That is where they will trap everyone today.  Bid in 10s was strong but now a shooting star. Bid coming in Euro and carry trade a  doji now…

Be careful with fading the 1085.50 area as fear may kick back in and send the market lower. The first solid support level below is 1080.25. If we break that area 1075.75 is the next hope to stop this falling knife. Volatility is very high this morning, so be very careful. Don’t trade first pushes into the new low support areas. Wait for an order flow setup on second pushes and do not take long trades if the institutional buying is not on your side. If the market can find support this morning, the short fade plays start at 1096. Use your judgement about volatility in the trade areas. If you think it’s too wild, stand aside.

 Posted by at 9:15 am

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