May 252010

One of the big items of course this morning is Korea, although it seems a little suspect. The market is certainly acting as though its initial reaction was was overcooked. With the European crisis unresolved though it makes perfect sense that we would see such a strong reaction. Perhaps of greater concern is the Spanish bank mergers deepening the impending doom of the credit markets. The Bund yields have dropped to the mid 2’s which are the lowest in about 25 years. Things are not looking good and we will likely see more selling. I really don’t know what else to say as it doesn’t matter much for the way we trade other than to make us wait longer for our turn. The levels are quite clear today though which helps see our spots. Despite all this my sense is that the OL holds for at least a full rotation and of course I don’t think we will see any huge rally either. If we do crash below the OL I have to say I just don’t have much interest as it will be totally reactionary and the volatility and noise in those conditions are just not my cup of tea to try and navigate. I would rather sit on my hands and wait for higher probability little setups which will always be there at the bottom or top of any big move. Whenever I “miss the move” I always flash a little smile of contentment knowing how easy it is to get crushed chasing it and then look to my statement and smile again even bigger. I doubt the consumer confidence will show much and because of its lagging nature won’t be telling the truth anyway so don’t expect much from that. Of course we have a huge gap and a strong bid in the 10s and another black diamond slope in the Euro as is to be expected. We will be watching those of course as well as the VIX to spot the gaps in the volatility around key levels to signal rotational activity as always. One thing to keep in mind off the open today – if the whole world thinks the sky is falling and gets short the market will be out of balance and cannot hold for long. Lots of suckers get trapped selling into the lows on news like this only to get crushed as supply shifts and the market comes to its senses.

 Posted by at 9:19 am

  2 Responses to “5/25/2010 Pre-Market Commentary”

  1. what is your look back period in the pre-market analysis of price/volume…..acceptance/rejection areas? Is it a week, 2 weeks, etc.

    thanks, great info especially the recorded webinars

    • The look back is to whenever the last time the ES was at the prices. For 5/25 key levels, I had to look back to November 2009 for volume below the overnight low.

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