Jun 032010

Kind of a news dud this morning as traders seem to be waiting for a big jobs report tomorrow. Claims came down a bit but the MA is still up. ADP drew a bit more attention but again not enough to make a difference. We have seen a very steady two session offer auction in the 10s and 2s which continues this morning and the weakened Yen and the lack of any major activity in the Euro keeps the carry trade looking very strong. We do have Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg news at 10 though I doubt we see much reaction. Despite what appears a clear bullish bias the institutional activity and current market structure tell another story. Overall volume in the rally yesterday was relatively light and institutional participation was mixed to significantly short on stronger relative volume than the broad market. In my opinion, this is because institutional traders are selling into the highs for position as we are just under a major resistance area which will may be very difficult to get through. In fact we are hearing the usual media positioning from the big boys this morning not the least of which was Einhorn announcing he is long gold and short the Spoos. The tepid reaction to the news may add to that off the open. All eyes are on the major 6.75 swing but that level is toxic as far as we are concerned. We may not trade it at all and instead just wait to the other side resistance to sell or hopefully we can get a short off the OH that will hold for a half rotation. Expect MAJOR volatility at the 6.75 swing to say the least. Great spot to tick scalp though with no stop (it will get hit for sure on the noise). If we do retrace I feel the same way about the OL as it is just structured weakly. I think there is a good chance it fails and it at least probes 92 or so. In a perfect world we get a long op around 98-99, or wait for a no-brainer back at the pivot around 87-88.

 Posted by at 9:22 am

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