Not much to report. No trade for us today. We were just in a grinding pattern and as I said pre-market I felt that the higher end of the range on the low side was too low probability to peak my interest. Whether technically at an LVN or not this morning, the market was trading with respect to the established balance above 22 and tests of the R3 area or even 22 are not significant in terms of the market moving into a “new” area where there is a fresh rejection. Even the little trade that just set up on the second test of the R2 is weak with a capital W in my view from a probability standpoint. The balance above is too close to make it significant and unless it really stretched out to challenge the day session R2 by breaking below it into the 19 handle firmly I wouldn’t be interested. The best potential trade of the morning was the first push under the R3 at 9:49 or so. It had good trapped sellers, but of course I don’t trade first pushes into levels except for tick scalping so that takes care of that one. If you were willing to bet the long off the R2 at 10:59 that one looks to have worked out also. Volume has been too light for my taste though and I would be scared to work any size going into lunch like that. Happy hunting to those sticking around…
3 Responses to “6/21/2010 Post Trading Analysis”
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Hey Rob,
When you say you don’t trade first pushes into a level does that include multiple pushes within the same PF bar? In other words, would the price need to reverse by at least the point figure reversal (forming a new bar) for you to consider it a trade worthy second push?
BTW. I took that 10:59 biglots trade, worked out for 1.25. Nice.
What do you use the bar reversal info (ticks, avgZ etc..) which is often on your charts? To help with entries, exits or scalps?
Appreciate the teaching. Thanks!
Yeah, I like to see a full 6T reversal. The reason is right now that is about a half rotation (the ES rotates in about 3 point swings naturally). I do trade most first pushes, but I just tick scalp those instead of trading longer and shorter term trade management schemes in the different accounts.
Congrats on the trade. I just didn’t like it as it wasn’t low enough for me.
I use the reversal stuff just for scalping. I’m just replacing what I look for on the DOM – speed and quality of print changes for tick scalp timing. Really just a feel thing…
Thanks man.
When you say the trade wasn’t “low enough” what do you mean? Rather not be taking risks I can’t identify.
As for scalping, I paper trade the scalps and it turns out that I suck at it. Within how many ticks of the turn do you usually get filled? Use market order? How many ticks will you let it go against you? I know this is off the main topic of this site, but any advice would be appreciated. Meanwhile, until the “feel thing” develops will keep losing simulated capital only…