Jul 192010

Pretty quiet this morning. We woke up to some more decent news with HAL announcing doubled profits giving rise to the blue chip contingent. It would be nice to get some more good housing news showing some more boost to the economy but it is tough to call. If we can get some continued improvement in claims and unemployment though I think that is what the market really wants to see for health of any rally. Friday’s sell-off was quite convicted and institutional volume was about twice the relative amount should be on average. However, overnight volume is light as it is and institutional participation is less than half of normal. In fact, the majority of big ticket selling overnight was close to the highs. The EUR got a bit of a pop and has leveled off but the carry trade is moving up nicely. However it is important to note that both are hitting heads close to previous high failure spots. The bonds are flat and Gold has sold off hard overnight. Crude has erased some early gains. I think all things considered bias needs to be a little more short than long this morning. I do think the interim support in the mid to high 50s is going to hold for a rotation though, but the question is where does it turn. When there are a lot of profile confusions it is best to look to the bars themselves and the strongest line is centered right around 58 or so. We shall see what shapes up when we get there. If we do get a pop up be especially careful with the overnight high as prior acceptance makes for a vague area up there. If you can wait for the rejection at 76 maybe that would be a better plan as that is right in the center of the rejection area on the composite as well. Good luck to all.

 Posted by at 9:11 am

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