Jul 212010

LOTS of great earnings news across all sectors INCLUDING financials for once. Blackrock, Wells, Morgan, Northern Trust, Goldman all beating estimates. And on the consumer side Pepsi, Coke, Harley Davidson. And technology is looking good even for Apple who still beat estimates along with Yahoo as well. Obviously we can see this in the market. Can you say front run the earnings by insider trading from institutions yesterday? Notice they traded long on very heavy relative volume in the market on essentially negative news off the open with the Housing Starts miss. Some things never change. In any case we do have a bit of downside pressure despite all the good news coming from the toxic mix of a falling Euro and rising Yen hammering the carry trade which of course shows the true long term risk appetite – still not there to where it should be. We could also see yields in the 10s hit 2.75 before it is over and just remember equities are at least in part a reaction to a lack of return on the flight to quality. This is why we have seen a consistent inverse correlation with gold over the last few months. Investors are essentially using gold as a substitute for paper yield and the bow is breaking as we speak. Mix this with some good earnings and presto, equities rally. Still, there is a lot of strength in the earnings numbers. I think if we can see some continued improvement in the claims tomorrow and Ben doesn’t say anything too stupid we have a good chance of breaking the interim highs and trade back above 1100. I don’t know if we might be a little overcooked right now and as such I would have to say I doubt we get there today ahead of Ben and the morning claims. I do think we have a good chance of testing the overhead resistance for comfort at least to some degree. We may rip up into the mid 90s and grind there for the day. If we do come off I have a feeling that the high 70s/low 80s will develop as new interim support and hold.

 Posted by at 8:56 am

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