Jul 282010

Another mixed bag this morning with some bad news on the durable goods orders leading the action. Big miss on the headline number. 1.0 expected from a boost in transportation mostly coming from Boeing (who also reported beat estimates) fails with a -1.0 headline. That means the ex-transportation picture is REALLY bad folks. Still, positive earnings across all sectors continue to come in with the question of course being whether everyone is beating estimates because the estimates were under estimated. LOL. In any case Boeing, General Dynamics and Dominos show good numbers. I like the pizza number as it shows discretionary spending in much of the demographic reserved for the unemployed and underemployed. They are of course the true back bone of the economy so my opinion continues to be that the economy is actually quite a bit stronger and more stable than some experts believe. The Euro is flat and the carry trade is pulling down a bit on the headline. Treasuries bid but then completely reversed. Too tough to call really. I will say that the institutional volume tells the likely truth and that is a slight bias to the long side but not enough to buy into the highs for fear of a multi-day rally correction which we still haven’t had despite the volatile pause yesterday. I do think the support at 98-1100 is strong and I hope we get a good push down as I like that area a lot for a long rotational trade. In contrast, the OL/YL is pretty treacherous and I will be waiting it out to the lower end before jumping in long on any test there. The OH is similar and I will most likely wait to fade the high side if we go that way.

 Posted by at 9:08 am

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