Aug 062010

Interesting that larger traders have been avoiding profit taking all week and still playing the long side. The initial reaction to the 131K lost jobs at 2x consensus was as expected, but the report really was a mixed bag and it wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t get some gigantic flush like people would expect. When it looks like the move is short and everyone is saying so, bet the other way. We will no doubt probe some levels today but the unemployment number is holding and the earnings are rising though we lost more non-farm jobs. We will just have to see how it shakes out today. There will be action that is nearly certain. Not much else to say other than AIG beat estimates in a big way and we continue to see good stuff in the economy, payrolls rising, etc. The carry trade is still on though so the bottom line is whether risk appetite returns from the major money supply will determine whether we make new highs this month or revisit old supports. We do appear to be stable now as I write this so we will have to see what the next test of the 9-10 handle brings. If it fails I bet we see 1100 today and if it holds we will likely test the interim highs. Be careful and expect more volatility around the levels today.

 Posted by at 8:56 am

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