Mar 162010

Housing starts were a hair above consensus but still down of course. Some blame the snow but of course that didn’t effect permitting which is still down. Import/exports shows signs of easing inflation pressure and a flat number for PPI tomorrow. The real question is whether this “not so bad” news is enough to warrant a retest of highs by bring just enough short term buyers to the table. Like yesterday, there are three high test fade ops today but order flow will be key to figuring out which of the first two (if either) will bring a failure. The ON high of 49 is key, but I have a hunch that Friday’s high of 50.25 is a better bet. If that holds of course the big daddy at 52 is a no brainer for at least a scalp fade or better. Just like yesterday on the short side the 44.50ish fade back into 46 or beyond is a candidate, as is 40.25 if the market still wants to treat the 36-39 area as support. A long breakout opportunity might be a quick scalp long from 51 into the retest just shy of 52. The short side breakout might be to sell 46 and trade into the test of the ON low at 44.50. There is a particularly strong cluster of support from 41-44 so if we were to sell later in the day we might look to short in the 38.50 range and sell into the YL test just shy of 36.50. Very important to watch PA and order flow today. Gap volume was fairly strong so there is less chance of a fill right off the open.

 Posted by at 9:31 am

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