It’s Thanksgiving holiday week with only 3 full trading days. US stock markets are closed on Thursday and closed early at 1pm ET on Black Friday.
Stock futures gapped higher overnight, an apparent thumbs up to Trump’s Treasury Secretary nomination. Trump chose Key Square Group manager Scott Bessent. Bessent indicated that he would support Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts but that investors expect him to prioritize economic and market stability over Trump political points.
Despite the shortened week, there’s plenty of economic data for markets to digest: Fed Minutes, Core PCE Price Index, GDP, CB Consumer Confidence, HPIs, New & Pending Home Sales, Richmond Mfg. Index, Weekly Claims, Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending, and Weekly Crude Oil. However, for today, the economic calendar is bare.
Now that corporate earnings are winding down, focus becomes the Fed’s perception of this week’s economic data. Last week, Fed governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that the Fed’s progress towards 2% inflation had stalled after both Core CPI and Core PPI showed price increases. Expectations are that core PCE to also rise in this month’s release on Wednesday. FedWatch probability for a December rate cut has dropped to 50.9%.
Corporate earnings this week are highlighted by Dell Technologies (DELL), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Macy’s (M), and DICK’s Sporting Goods (DKS) which all are released tomorrow. Corporate earnings today after the bell include Agilent Technologies (A), Woodward (WWD), and Zoom Video Communications (ZM).
Volatility fell Friday and volatility this week will likely be dictated by economic data reactions and fizzle in the afternoons.
Whale bias is leaning bullish into the US session open on much lighter than recent overnight volume.
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