It’s a Fed Day. November Fed meeting minutes will be released today, a day early due to the pending Thanksgiving holiday.
The day of market impacting Trump tweets (or Truth Social “truths”) is back upon us. The last 4 years of relatively calm overnight markets is about to get rocky again as usually out-of-the-blue Trump “truths” get digested. It was a common occurrence during the Trump presidential years to wake up and think WTF happened overnight? Then to find out Trump went on a posting rant.
Trump posted after the bell Monday that on day one in office, he would impose 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The announcement sent stock futures and gold down, and the US dollar up.
The USMCA agreement with Mexico and Canada is not up for negotiation until 2026, but Trump is likely setting the expectations early. The Mexico/Canada tariffs seem conditional. Trump said the tariffs would remain in place until the two countries clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing the US borders. Over 83% of Mexican exports and 75% of Canadian exports go to the US.
As for the 10% additional China tariff, Trump is likely testing Xi’s appetite to play ball.
On Monday, the Dow closed at a new record high while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both rose 0.3%, despite Nvidia (NVDA) tumbling 4%.
Bitcoin failed to reach $100,000 and has dropped over 6% to below $94,000 over the last 3 days. Since the election, the total cryptocurrency market cap has risen over $1 trillion.
Corporate earnings premarket include Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), DICK’s Sporting Goods (DKS), ADI, HTHT, and SJM. Earnings after the bell include Dell Technologies (DELL), HPQ (HP), ADSK, CRWD, NTNX, and WDAY.
The economic calendar includes S&P/CS Compoite-20 HPI and HPI @ 9:00am ET, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and Richmond Manufacturing Fed @ 10:00am ET.
Volatility ticked up on Monday and remains moderately high. The ES 5-day average daily range has grown to 72 points.
Whale bias is bearish into the US session open on significant overnight large trader volume.
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